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Recent wacky weather has more to do with jet stream, but linked to climate change

Despite hot March, summer shaping up to be close to normal

At the end of March people in Ontario were wearing shorts, but as April draws to a close, people in Ontario, Quebec and Eastern Canada are reaching for their winter jackets again.

Meanwhile, Alberta is enjoying warm, sunny days.

While this seems strange for many people and has everyone asking what is happening with our climate, the wacky weather has more to do with the jet stream and not as much to do with climate change.

"Weather is mainly random," said Director of Meteorology for The Weather Network Chris Scott. "It really comes down to the jet stream pattern."

In the case of last week, much of Alberta and the West were on the low side of the jet stream while Ontario and the East were on the high side which means colder weather. The jet stream and specific temperatures can only be predicted about one to two weeks ahead and active weather has been happening for a long time.

'Weather' is what is happening here and now, while 'climate' is the statistics of weather.

Scott said we can't attribute one particular storm to climate change, but "climate change is real and it's happening." Temperatures will continue to rise and it will change ecosystems and sea levels, and cause droughts.

Snow at the end of April and a heat wave in March are not a direct result of climate change, but because of our warming atmosphere, we should expect events like this past March to be a regular occurrence.

"Warm records will happen more often," said Dr. Andrew Weaver, a climate modeller in the School of Earth and Ocean Sciences at the University of Victoria. Weaver said it's extremely unlikely events like last March would happen without climate change.

Because 70 per cent of the planet is covered by water, he said, a consequence of oceans warming means more rain when it rains. Climate change is also changing ecosystems and areas that normally experience drought are being hit worse than normal. Species will become extinct and the developing world will bear the burden for the problem created by the developed world.

He points to countries like Germany and England as doing a good job to reduce emissions, but said here in Canada they're still going up.

Weaver compares climate change to a boiling pot. When you put it on the stove and turn it on, the water isn't hot right away. We have turned on the stove and the problem is even if we turn it off, it won't cool right away.

"Because it's not happening tomorrow, it's not a quick fix," said Weaver. "Our children are going to be living this...the public doesn't recognize the significance of the problem."

As for the weather, Scott gave us a sneak peek at the summer seasonal forecast and said it is shaping up to be a close-to-normal summer.

He said March was exceptionally warm but doesn't expect that trend to continue through 2012. So no need to fear about a sweltering summer this year.

(CBC photo)