Advertisement

7 things to know about UN climate change talks in Paris

Brush up on your earth science before the Paris Conference on Climate Change

Prime Minister Justin Trudeau will join the leaders of more than 190 nations next week in Paris for the United Nations’ latest climate summit.

Billed as a landmark meeting, it is hoped that the global politerati will reach a binding agreement on cutting greenhouse gas emissions (GHG) in an effort to curb catastrophic global warming.

Here’s what you need to know:

What is it?

COP21 taking place in Paris from Nov. 30 to Dec. 11 is the 21st “Conference of Parties” to the UN Framework on Climate Change signed in 1992.

It is the first time these countries will aim to reach a legally binding and universal agreement on cutting emissions to try and keep global warming to below 2 C by the end of the century.

The current commitments run out in 2020. The hope is that the Paris talks will produce a successor deal.

Who will be there?

Everybody. At least 147 world leaders are expected to attend, in spite of the recent terror attacks in the French capital on Nov. 13.

The UN Framework Convention on Climate Change has near universal support, with signatures from 195 member states and one regional economic integration organization.

Nearly 50,000 participants are expected in Paris, including 25,000 official delegates from government, UN agencies, intergovernmental organizations, non-government organizations and civil society.

Why does it matter?

The vast majority of scientists agree: if greenhouse gas emissions continue to rise at pace, Earth will see catastrophic climate change by the end of this century. Already, glacial melt, extreme weather events and rising sea levels are having a noticeable impact around the world.

The status quo will result in an estimated increase in temperature of 5 C by century’s end. The threshold to irreversible change is considered 2 C above pre-industrial levels.

What’s been happening up to this point?

The UN Framework on Climate Change was adopted at the Rio Earth Summit in 1992, setting out a framework for action on GHG emissions.

That was followed in 1997 by the Kyoto Protocol, the first-ever emissions reductions treaty. The deal legally obliged 38 industrialized nations, including Canada, to cut emissions to achieve an average reduction of approximately five per cent of 1990 levels by 2012.

The pact did not come into force, though, until 2005. The United States never did ratify the deal, largely because emerging economies, including China, were not obliged to cut emissions.

The Canadian government ratified in 2002 but officially abandoned Kyoto in 2011, having made almost no progress toward meeting the reduction goal.

At the Bali climate change conference in 2007, UN member nations agreed to negotiate a Kyoto successor in 2009. That pact failed to happen in Copenhagen, though member states did agree that GHG emissions need to be limited – an agreement that included for the first time China and other emerging economies.

Negotiations continued at ensuing summits in Mexico, South Africa, Qatar, Poland and Peru.

Why is this summit different?

Expectations are extremely high after the U.S. and China — two of the world’s most intense GHG emitters — announced a bilateral pact last year.

“This is the first time the two biggest economies have agreed on emission reductions,” says Olaf Weber, an associate professor at the University of Waterloo’s School of Environment, Enterprise and Development and a senior fellow at the Centre for International Governance Innovation.

“And it is the first time that China has accepted to reduce emissions.”

The Paris summit is also the first to negotiate reductions for both developing and developed nations, further narrowing potential objections.

“This agreement also brakes the conflict between industrialized countries that have been the main cause of the emissions so far and developing countries that ask for their share in using fossil fuels for their economic development,” Weber says.

There is also increasing public pressure for action.

What is Canada putting on the table?

With little more than a month in office, the Liberal government will not be bringing revised targets to Paris. Earlier this year, the previous Conservative government committed to cutting GHG emissions by 30 per cent below 2005 levels by 2030.

It’s actually quite ambitious, “given how little we’ve done to date,” says Kathryn Harrison, a political science professor at the University of British Columbia.

But many other countries have pursued more aggressive policies.

“There will be pressure on Canada to do more. Just saying, ‘We’re back and we’ll be better’ is not going to cut it,” she says.

“Other countries will need some convincing that we’re actually serious this time, and that will not be easy given the domestic political challenges that remain.”

How does Canada compare?

The European Union says it will cut emissions by 40 per cent of 1990 levels by 2030 and the U.S. by 26 to 28 per cent of 2005 levels by 2025.

China says it will aim to cut GHG emissions per unit of gross domestic product by 60 to 65 per cent from 2005 levels. Chinese officials also say the nation’s emissions will peak by 2030, or sooner, as the country weans itself off of coal energy production toward more sustainable sources.

“Canada has one of the highest per capita GHG emissions in the world,” Weber says. “This means that real per capita emissions will still be high compared to other countries.”

The global average is about five metric tonnes per capita per year. Canada’s will be about 12 tonnes per capita per year after it reaches the targeted 30 per cent reduction by 2030.