Bumper harvests predicted for Canadian farmers, if Mother Nature co-operates

Farmers across Canada are looking forward to potential bumper crops this year, CBC News reports.

But of course it all depends on the weather.

"Timing is everything," David Phillips, Environment Canada's senior climatologist, told CBC News. "I have seen some summers where precipitation was below normal, but they still had bumper crops because they seemed to get … one inch of water in a week."

Phillips noted southwestern Ontario is experiencing very dry conditions while the Prairies have been surprisingly wet, receiving more rainfall than during a normal year. Still, CBC News noted, it's better than last year, when flooding and soggy fields impaired the harvest.

"There's a lot of people in that southeastern portion of Saskatchewan that were flooded out last year that still haven't recovered and their cropland is either under water or having excess moisture this year," said Trevor Hadwen, an agro-climate specialist at Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada in Regina.

"It's not to the same flood degree as last year obviously, but they're having a tremendously difficult time getting onto their fields in terms of spraying or, in some areas, in terms of seeding earlier this year."

Ryan Maurer, who farms near Grenfell, Sask., was flooded out last year but his canola crop looks promising this year, as long as the weather co-operates.

Timely rain helped southern Ontario farmers who saw their crops starting to look stressed in the hot, dry conditions.

"Then Mother Nature looked down on us and since [last] Monday, we are approaching two inches of rain," said Andrew Campbell, a dairy farmer who also plants corn, soybeans and hay.

"Prospects are back to very good for the fall harvest, as long as these timely rains find their way back to us."

[Related: British Columbians bemoan cool, rainy 'Juneuary' ]

In British Columbia, cool, wet weather delayed the blueberry and strawberry crops but the return of the sun has produced fat, sweet berries.

Blueberry picking in the region east of Vancouver should begin in a few days with revenues expected to equal last year's $150-million total, Debbie Etsell, executive director of the B.C. Blueberry Council, told CBC News.

However, the B.C. Okanagan's expected bumper cherry crop was diminished by storms on Canada Day weekend, B.C. Agriculture Ministry spokesman Robert Boelens said.

Likewise, a March heat spike, followed by a frost, has hurt Ontario's apple crop.

In Atlantic Canada, potatoes, blueberries and tree fruits are all doing well, about two weeks ahead of schedule.

"As long as we get adequate rain … this is looking like a fairly positive year for crop production in Nova Scotia," noted David Burton, a soil sciences professor at the Nova Scotia Agricultural College.

If Canadian gain farmers can get in those potential bumper crops successfully, the outlook for international sales is good, a Reuters report suggests.

The International Grains Council on Monday cut its forecast for global wheat production largely due to a deteriorating outlook for Russia's crop.

"The outlook for world wheat production in 2012-13 continued to be affected by unfavourable weather conditions in some countries including a further deterioration in crop expectations in Russia," the council said in a monthly report.

The council also cut Ukraine's wheat crop forecast but revised U.S. and E.U. predictions upward, Reuters said.

However, the council predicted 2012-13 world wheat stocks would decline from last year and reach a four-year low.

Phillips cautioned that the wild card for Canadian farmers is the potential for extreme weather, which would not devastate regions but could cripple small areas.

"Alberta, normally in an average kind of year, … you'd get about 80 severe weather events," he said. "They've had 50 already and July is normally the peak month of severe weather."

"In Saskatchewan, they've already had probably five or six more tornadoes than they get in an entire year with hail and strong winds."

The Insurance Bureau of Canada said Monday that property damage from late-May wind and thunder storms in Ontario resulted in $200 million in claims, which doesn't include farmers' claims under crop insurance.

[ Related: Western Canada warms as Ontario heat eases ]