Does social media make violence like the Moncton attack predictable?

Compounding the horrific events that struck Moncton, N.B., on Wednesday evening and continue to shake the community through Thursday is the niggling fear that, just maybe, we should have seen it coming.

Three Mounties were killed and two others were injured when a heavily-armed suspect went on a rampage in the city of 70,000 people. Photos of the suspect show a young man dressed in camouflage, carrying two large firearms, a crossbow and at least one knife.

New Brunswick RCMP has identified the suspect as 24-year-old Justin Bourque. But even as the suspect remained out of the grasp of authorities, a clearer picture has emerged about who he was and that an attack may have been predictable.

At least two people who know Bourque have come out and said they saw warning signs. A close friend told Business Insider that the last time they hung out, Bourque was acting strangely and told him to have a good life. A woman who had previously worked with Bourque at Wal-Mart said “he always said he wanted to go out with a bang and bring people with him."

On top of these dark premonitions is Bourque’s online profile which, like many killers of the modern era, was filled with clues, had people were looking for them.

A Facebook page under Bourque’s name, which appears to belong to the suspected shooter, is replete with references to guns, including photos of a heavily-armed hunting enthusiast, and is filled with anti-establishment messages and posts mentioning a distrust and even hatred of police.

Several posts bemoan the “militarization” of police forces, paint authorities as self-serving masochists and demand looser gun laws. The last post to the profile was made just hours before Bourque is said to have launched a violent attack against Moncton police forces, and contains lyrics from Megadeth's song 'Hook in Mouth'.

This is not the first time a recent act of public violence was preceded by online inklings of trouble. Two weeks ago, a young California man who went on a shooting spree and killed six people had announced his intentions in a series of videos posted to YouTube.

Elliot Rodger even left a manifesto for people to read, detailing the when and the why of his assault. Montreal murder suspect Luke Magnotta had also established an extensive online presence, complete with a detailed Facebook profile and, allegedly, videos of the torture and beheading of his victim.

In the cases of Rodger and Magnotta, police were tipped to their online activities before the public attacks. In the case of Magnotta, an animal rights group had alerted authorities to a cat-torturing video it had traced to him. In Rodger’s manifesto, he bragged that police had been alerted to his promises of violence, but he had convinced them he was not a threat.

In today's culture, it is almost inevitable that those prone to acts of violence would show their true selves online. With most of society participating on some level in social media, experts say we are distancing ourselves from face-to-face relationships and relying more heavily on the seeming liberty that comes with online communication.

Lemoyne College psychology professor Krystine Batcho says some people could choose to post warnings on social media through an unconscious desire to receive help or be stopped. She notes that Colorado theatre shooting suspect John Holmes reportedly phoned his psychiatrist just minutes before the attack, but was unable to make contact.

“It is also possible in some cases that public postings reflect the shooter’s desire for attention, even for infamy,” Batcho told Yahoo Canada News in an email. “Such killers hope to achieve a type of immortality in the form of being remembered for their horrific act. Mass violence suggests a delusional sense of superiority.

“The killer may feel that he is ‘on a mission’ to seek justice for perceived wrongs or social unfairness. This is more likely when the shooter feels humiliation, rejection, abandonment or isolation. An individual who feels alienated can suffer emotional distancing, and emotional distancing can foster feelings of alienation.”

Studies have also suggested there is a connection between online immersion and loneliness and depression. One paper titled "Why Do People Use Facebook," co-authored by Boston University's Dr. Stefan Hofmann, suggested one of the main reasons people use social media was to fill the need for self-presentation. In short, the things people say and post to Facebook can be used to present a perfect version of themselves, idealized in their own eyes.

The paper refers to separate research conducted at the University of Texas, which found that "impressions made independently from (Facebook) profiles for all personalities were accurate, with the exception of emotional stability."

Unfortunately, scouring social media for signs of an impending attack is not likely to help avoid future attacks. It is not currently possible to determine which messages are innocuous and which from troubled people searching for help. According to Batcho, mass violence is thankfully still too rare for accurate statistical prediction.

“In my opinion, developing procedures for psychologists and other mental health providers to obtain permission from their high risk clients or patients to monitor their social media activity would be more productive,” she said. “Legal privacy rights and technical logistical problems present difficulties for effective monitoring as well.”

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