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What does the Ukraine crisis mean for Canada’s military?

Statement from Stephen Harper after his meeting with Vadym Prystaiko, Ukraine's ambassador to Canada

The government's decision to deploy six RCAF CF-18 fighters to Poland as part of NATO's response to the crisis in Ukraine seems to have caused barely a ripple in Canada.

There's been surprisingly little discussion, considering the worst case scenario could find them going, in the immortal words of Dr. Strangelove's Major 'King' Kong, "toe to toe with the Rooskies."

The announcement Thursday by Prime Minister Stephen Harper was the latest Canadian response to what the government sees as Russian meddling in Ukraine, from its support of armed pro-Russian separatists in Crimea and eastern Ukraine to the buildup of Russian troops on the border.

An agreement this week between Russia and Ukraine was supposed to ease tensions, but was being ignored by pro-Russian militias on the ground.

“Canada continues to strongly condemn Russia’s illegal occupation of Ukraine and its ongoing aggressive military provocation," Harper said in a news release.

“Along with our NATO allies, we recognize the need to enhance security and stability in Central and Eastern Europe."

Besides sending the aging CF-18s and their support units to a Polish air base, Harper said up to 20 Canadian Armed Forces staff officers would be moved to NATO's European headquarters to assist in planning the organization's potential countermoves if the crisis escalates.

[ Related: Six CF-18s headed to Europe to bolster NATO forces response to Ukraine ]

No one should construe this as a prelude to direct military intervention in Ukraine, which isn't a NATO member and has received no commitment for military help. It is part of a co-ordinated response by NATO to send Russia a message and to calm the nerves of the alliance's newer Eastern European members, which once were Soviet satellite states.

“Canada remains steadfast in its support for Ukraine and will not stand idly by while its sovereignty and territorial integrity are threatened," Harper said.

Canada actually seems to have been late to this party. The day before Harper's announcement, Canadian Press defence reporter Murray Brewster said Canada was noticeably absent from a list of countries NATO Secretary General Anders Fogh Rasmussen listed as providing air contingents for Eastern Europe.

Up to that point, the countries that stepped up included the United States, Britain, Denmark, Poland, Portugal, Germany, France and the Czech Republic.

"We already know that some Allies will come forward with concrete contributions and I'm sure that more will follow," Rasmussen said.

Up to that point, Canada's tough talk was limited to diplomatic and economic measures, including barring some prominent Russians from travelling to Canada and imposing economic sanctions against individuals and institutions.

Part of Canada's reticence may have been due to questions over what the additional NATO forces' role would be, as well as the possibility of mission creep as circumstances evolve, a NATO expert told CP.

Steve Saideman, who chairs Carleton University's international affairs program, told CP the government could consider deploying a handful of fighters or a navy frigate into the Baltic to back up Harper's rhetoric.

"I know this government cares a lot about minimizing operations to get to the balanced budget in 2015," he said.

"But if the secretary general of NATO starts knocking on Canada's door, it'll be very hard for these leaders to say Canada won't participate given the statements they've made and given their interest in placating the average Ukrainian-Canadian voters."

That's what Ottawa appears to have done.

“This is in response to the situation that is developing there and frankly more generally to the concern that we have on what really is expansionism and militarism on the part of Russia under the presidency of Mr. [Vladimir] Putin,” Harper said Thursday, according to CBC News.

“I believe this to be a long-term, serious threat to global peace and security and we’re always prepared to work with our allies in NATO and elsewhere.”

Analysts will be studying that statement and NATO's moves in the coming weeks and months to determine if this signals shift in the military alliance, originally formed to counter the threat of a Soviet invasion of Western Europe.

Will the long, steady draw-down of NATO forces after the collapse of the USSR be reversed? And what would that mean for Canada?

When the North Atlantic Treaty Organization was founded in 1948, Canada was a charter member. According to the Canadian War Museum, by the early 1950s, it stationed some 10,000 military personnel in what was then West Germany, including an infantry brigade and 12 squadrons of aircraft, in addition to 40 warships committed to NATO.

In fact, says the museum's article, NATO commitments swelled defence spending to make up 45 per cent of the entire federal budget.

Of course that was at the height of the Cold War, when Canada and its NATO allies believed they could face a nuclear showdown, perhaps combined with a flood of Soviet tanks surging through Germany's Fulda Gap into Western Europe.

[ Related: New Russia sanctions threats as Ukraine stalemate goes on ]

That kind of spending would be a much harder sell today, especially with a Conservative government that is cutting back the defence budget after Canada's decade-long mission in Afghanistan.

The most recent federal budget last February effectively cut defence spending by $3.1 billion, CBC News reported. The government shifted money by deferring promised equipment purchases, which experts say will erode Canada's readiness to execute the Conservatives' Canada First Defence strategy – conceived early in their mandate when they spent big – and carry out overseas missions.

Indeed, the December 2012 readiness report prepared by the Commons standing committee on defence urged the government to ensure the armed forces is able to maintain a "readily deployable, balanced, multi-purpose combat-ready force," and maintain sufficient airlift capacity to move them.

Budget plans would go out the window if tensions escalate in Eastern Europe and the government is forced to back up its rhetoric.

It's happened before, with Canada leading the NATO air mission in Libya in 2011 and joining the alliance's aerial bombing campaign to pry Kosovo out of Serbia's hands in 1999.

Interestingly, the Kosovo mission involved a contingent of the air force's CF-18s, which now are 15 years older.