Advertisement

Ice cream sales melting away, but Canada's big three producers not frozen out yet

(Photo via Thinkstock)
(Photo via Thinkstock)

I scream, you scream, we all scream for ice cream? Apparently, not as often as we used to.

Ice cream consumption has been melting for decades across North America. When Dana McCauley was growing up, there was always ice cream in the freezer. McCauley, who is now a food trend expert based in Toronto, had a mother who thought nothing of scooping some ice cream for her kids several times per week.

Oh, how times have changed. In 2015, most parents would frown upon others feeding their kids vast amounts of sugary, fat-laden, calorie-intensive ice cream. These days McCauley, the host of the YouTube channel Food Trends TV and parent to an 18-year-old son, thinks of ice cream as an occasional treat to enjoy on a hot summer’s day. She’s not alone in that thinking, either.

The scoop on changing tastes

In the U.S. availability of ice cream (seen as an indicator of the amount being consumed) hit its peak of 22.7 pounds per capita in 1946, according to the United States Department of Agriculture By 2012, it had dropped to 12.9 pounds per person. While it’s difficult to directly compare worldwide consumption as each country defines what ice cream is differently, there has been a drop in Canada over the years, too. In 2004 Canadians ate 9.5 litres of ice cream per capita, according to the Canadian Dairy Information Centre. By 2014 consumption was down to 5.49 litres.

That number isn’t as dramatic as it first seems, said Douglas Goff, one of the world’s leading ice cream experts in a phone interview with Yahoo Canada News. In the mid-2000s what could be called ice cream was redefined by the government, explains Goff, who is a professor in the Department of Food Science at the University of Guelph in southwestern Ontario. Now, many of the tubs of what look like ice cream in the freezer aisles of grocery stores are categorized and labelled (often in really small font) as frozen desserts. Real ice cream is milk-fat based, while frozen desserts are usually vegetable-fat based, says Goff.

As for why that has changed, Goff says it’s all about the bottom line.

“It’s a cost measure,” says the ice cream purist. “It’s kept the price down at the sacrifice of quality.”

If you include these frozen desserts back in, Canadian consumption sat at 10.5 litres per capita in 2010. In comparison, Australia with its notoriously-hot summers was well ahead of Canada with 17.9 litres per capita. Considering the length of winter in Canada, it’s clear Canadians love their ice cream (and frozen desserts).

But that doesn’t change the overall downward trend in consumption in North. Back in 1980, per capita consumption in Canada was at 12.72 litres, so overall consumption is still down. And in 2001 Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada did a report on the declining purchase of ice cream, ice cream dessert or frozen yogurt, which found a 30 per cent decline in consumption between 1996 and 2001.

The report pointed to some demographic trends that have only become more pronounced since 2001: Urban households were less likely to buy ice cream or frozen desserts compared to rural households, as were single people and Canadians born outside of Canada. Not to put too fine a point on it, but die-hard ice cream fans are also starting to die off.

(Photo via Thinkstock)
(Photo via Thinkstock)

According to the 2001 report, households with those over 65 were more likely to purchase ice cream or frozen dessert – the youngest of that group would now be 79 today. And as our population ages Canadians are worrying more about heart disease, diabetes and their waistlines, which means ice cream is often going to be on the list of things doctors recommend cutting down, or out of diets entirely. Even teen girls, years away from worrying about high cholesterol and growing waistlines, are opting for different treats.

“My son is 18, the girls he hangs out with in the 15-to-19 age range are always going to Starbucks,” says McCauley.

The soda shoppe has been replaced by the coffee house as a teen hangout spot. Instead of a milkshake made with real ice cream, kids these days are often opting for a Frappuccino. Most other coffee and fast-food chains, such Tim Hortons’ Iced Capp, offer their own version of what is essentially a caffeinated dessert in a cup. And for those more health–conscious teens and adults there are now a range of smoothies and cold-pressed juices for sale to sip on when the hot weather finally settles in.

Big Three ice cream producers weathering drop in customers

Despite the downward trend in ice cream consumption, there’s no need to cry like a kid who’s just dropped their ice cream cone on the sidewalk for the big three frozen desert makers.

Whether you’re buying a tub at the grocery store or a cone at the corner store the market in Canada is still dominated by Nestlé Canada Inc., Unilever Canada Inc. and Chapman’s Specialty Foods. Even with relatively flat growth, the ice cream category in Canada is forecast to rake in $1.9 billion in sales in 2019, according to Euromonitor International. Nestlé, with brands like Häagen-Dazs and Drumstick, is expected to remain the leader. Unilever, with brands such as Ben & Jerry’s and Breyers, is in second place. Chapman’s, which David and Penny Chapman started as a small creamery in Markdale, Ont. back in 1973 rounds out the big three brands. While Chapman’s still sells its classic creations, such as the Original Chocolate & Vanilla Checkerboard in the cardboard box, it has kept up with the times. They also sell sorbet and frozen yogurt and recently started selling gelato. In recent years there has been an emphasis on offering healthier frozen dessert concoctions, as well as the addition of on-trend ingredients, such as pistachio and dark chocolate, says Goff.

The big three will likely continue to dominate the market and imitate trends that smaller players popularize first. Virtually every segment of the food industry, be it craft beer or organic chickens, has been influenced by an appetite for local food and drink made well. Long-time smaller Canadian dairies, like Kawartha Dairy in Ontario or Avalon Diary in British Columbia, have had those in the know eagerly licking up their real ice cream for years.

Among a subset of health-conscious hipsters, however, dairy is becoming the new gluten. When Gwyneth Paltrow and other celebs go on a cleanse, dairy, in all its forms, is usually put on the list of don’t haves. And a new book by Toronto-based author Alissa Hamilton called Got Milked? The Great Dairy Deception and Why You'll Thrive Without Milk could succeedin making dairy the latest food no-no.

Despite doctor’s orders and the protestations of dairy deniers, there are still times when most of us scream yes, yes for ice cream. In true Canadian fashion the next day it’s more than 15 degrees outside you can guarantee many of us will be out there, with flip-flops on our feet and ice cream cones in our hands.

Follow Melissa on Twitter: @Melissa_Dunne33