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Year in Review: Worldwide threat of terror to remain largely the same in 2016

[Amandine Marbach from Strasbourg, France attends a vigil after the attack at Charlie Hebdo offices. (Reuters)]

There are children in their mid-teens for whom terrorism has been a spectre for their entire lives, the way the constant threat of nuclear annihilation was a fact of life for Baby Boomers.

Except Boomers didn’t witness nuclear strikes that demonstrated regularly the danger was real. Armageddon loomed over the horizon, literally. For today’s young people, the roll call of real terror attacks in 2015 alone reads like a list of battles: Charlie Hebdo, the Bataclan, Metrojet, San Bernardino, Charleston.

The last one on that list was carried out against a black church group by a purported white supremacist, demonstrating terror is not the tool of violent Muslim extremists alone. In fact, according to the Southern Poverty Law Center, right-wing extremists have accounted for more domestic terror deaths in the U.S. since 9/11 than jihadis.

But 2015 was the year Islamic State (aka ISIS, ISIL and now Daesh) firmly supplanted al-Qaeda as the No. 1 perceived terror threat.

Canada was spared a direct attack in 2015, unlike the previous year when two soldiers died in separate lone-wolf attacks, one shot at the national war memorial in Ottawa and another run down by a car in Saint-Jean-sur-Richelieu, Que.

[Prime Minister Stephen Harper (2nd L) and Prime Minister-designate Justin Trudeau lay a wreath during a ceremony to commemorate the October 2014 attack on Parliament Hill in Ottawa, October 22, 2015. (Reuters)]

Still, Canadians have been fully involved, helping push back ISIS’s so-called caliphate in Iraq, welcoming refugees from Syria and combating radicalization at home. With the new Liberal government in place, Ottawa may tweak federal policies in those areas but the problems Canada and the world will confront next year remain fundamentally the same.

Despite the fatal 2014 attacks, most Canadians have remained somewhat insulated from the direct effects of the terrorism struggle.

“Many of the major events that really shape much of the thinking are events that don’t really touch us here,” says political scientist Christian Leuprecht, who teaches at Royal Military College and Queen’s University.

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The deadly attacks in Paris, first against the offices of satirical magazine Charlie Hebdo and a Jewish market, then more recently the massacre at the Bataclan nightclub and killings at other public venues in the city, horrified Canadians.

The December attack on a Christmas party in San Bernardino, Calif., by a husband-and-wife team of apparently self-radicalized terrorists underscored ISIS had followers outside its so-called caliphate in Iraq and Syria willing to become martyrs to their cause.

“I think [in] retrospect we realized that Charlie Hebdo was vastly misinterpreted by politicians,” Leuprecht, who specializes in the study of terrorism, said in an interview with Yahoo Canada.

Charlie Hebdo attack not isolated strike at the press

What was seen last spring as just a backlash against a publication that lampooned the Prophet Mohammed in hindsight looks more like the beginning of a broader offensive by ISIS against the western culture it reviles in countries besieging it. That was underscored by the targets attackers chose in the later Paris attacks; a rock concert, a sidewalk cafe, an international soccer match.

The attackers were not from the Middle East (with the exception of female half of the San Bernardino duo, who hailed from Pakistan) but were born in Europe and the U.S. The Belgium-born Paris terrorists were thought to have had direct contact with ISIS while the couple seem to have engaged largely in DIY radicalization to ISIS’s worldview.

[Photos of the 14 people killed during a shooting in San Bernardino, California December 2, 2015. (Reuters)]

“Those who support them, seeing the caliphate in trouble, will feel an even greater urge to do something to help and defend the cause,” said Lorne Dawson, a professor of sociology and legal studies at the University of Waterloo and co-founder of the Canadian Network for Research on Terrorism, Security and Society.

Western reaction has been two-fold. A relentless air campaign by an international coalition allied to a ground war conducted by local forces is fighting to dislodge ISIS from territory it controls in Iraq and Syria. Meanwhile, security and intelligence agencies are trying to identify extremist sympathizers and intervene before the act.

While it’s said the public almost never hears about attacks that are prevented, Paris and San Bernardino have been criticized as major intelligence failures.

Last January, the former Conservative government introduced Bill C-51, which among other things allowed for more information sharing among federal institutions and made it easier to detain or restrict terror suspects without charges.

Most contentiously, the law gave the Canadian Security Intelligence Service the new power to disrupt groups thought to be planning terrorist activity. It includes using methods that might break Canadian law and violate the Charter. It moved CSIS from being information gatherers to an active counter-terror role.

The provisions came under criticism but passed with the support of the Liberals, then the third party in the Commons. Leader Justin Trudeau promised, however, to amend the law if his party came to power, something few thought would happen until October’s surprise election result.

Leuprecht said he expects Trudeau, now prime minister, to tread carefully in fulfilling his promise.

“The prime minister sure wouldn’t want to have a Paris-style attack happen in Canada just after he relaxes some of the provisions in C-51, and having to wear that sort of attack,” he said.

Changes are expected, he said, because even its backers saw the legislation as imperfect. Critics, including Trudeau, want more oversight either by the Security Intelligence Review Committee (SERC), a government-appointed watchdog, or via a parliamentary committee.

“They’ll probably look at review and oversight and accountability, and they’ll probably make some changes there,” Leuprecht said.

“My guess is they’ll probably do something on the disruption element, on what’s professionally known as the threat mitigation or threat reduction capabilities.”

Feds likely to be pressured not to weaken anti-terror law

The government will likely come under pressure from the counter-terror community not to hamstring CSIS too much, he added.

“My best guess is these powers are being deployed, and the minister would know because it requires a warrant,” said Leuprecht. “The minister would see every one of those warrants before they’re authorized. So the minister would have a very good idea to what extent these new powers, especially CSIS’s new disruption powers are being employed.”

It’s likely the government won’t act until other priorities are out of the way, perhaps as late as next summer, he said. Leuprecht added he’s reassured Trudeau appointed Liberal cabinet veteran Ralph Goodale as public safety minister.

“When you put one of your most experienced and best people on that file, it suggests that they anticipate that’s going to be a difficult file and they needed somebody with exceptional experience to run it,” he said.

On the military front, Leuprecht also believes the Liberals will take their time fulfilling their campaign commitment to withdraw Canadian CF-18 fighter-bombers from the coalition air campaign over Iraq.

[Canadian Air Force fighter CF-18 Hornet (L) and Portuguese Air Force fighter F-16 patrol over Baltics air space November 20, 2014. (Reuters)]

Trudeau reiterated the pledge after taking power but Leuprecht said it will take time to consult with allies on what military resources they want Canada to deploy instead, whether it’s additional special operations soldiers to help train local forces or some other form of support.

Any controversy over pulling out the six jets is somewhat overheated Leuprecht believes. The Conservatives dispatched the force in 2014 when the U.S.-led coalition had few Western partners in the air campaign, he said.

“When we showed up there wasn’t anyone else helping,” he said. “It was us and the Danes. Now the skies are getting pretty crowded; the Russians, the French, the Brits.”

The Canadian Armed Forces’ involvement in the Syrian refugee effort may delay the transition process further, Leuprecht said. Though it’s been speculated the jets could be out within weeks, he suggested they could stay until March, when Canada’s commitment to the air campaign expires.

“My argument around this always is that Canada does need to make a real, kinetic contribution and it needs to be present because that’s what will give Canada some leverage on the means and the ends of what happens there,” Leuprecht said.

The other major preoccupation has been how to keep young Canadians from being drawn into the radical Islamists’ world.

Dawson said there’s greater vigilance and awareness of the problem in Canada but efforts to counter radicalization remain marginal and lack national co-ordination.

Programs to steer Muslim youth from extremism have sprung up in some major cities but they’re a checkerboard of efforts, often under the auspices of the police.

B.C. Mounties training members to recognize radicalization

Lawson praised the RCMP in B.C.’s E Division, including its Integrated National Security Enforcement Team (INSET), for training members on how to detect and intervene before someone’s views shift from opinion to criminal action.

“They’ve been doing a lot of active consultation with academics, psychologists, community workers, things of that nature,” he said. “But it’s all kind of not a formal program. It’s just really strong initiative by the INSET unit and others working out of E Division.”

The Calgary Police Department launched its Redirect program in reaction to six young Calgarians leaving to join ISIS in 2014 but the fact it’s under police control limits its effectiveness, said Dawson.

“People, to provide information, let’s say if it’s your kid you’re worried about, you’re more or less reporting them to the police and that can really deter a lot of people,” he said.

[Montreal police practise terrorist attack response (CBC)]

Quebec, where young would-be jihadis have been stopped at the airport from leaving the country, introduced a series of measures last spring to combat extremism. A centre for the prevention of radicalization, based in Montreal, is getting support from the city and province. It has police liaison officers but operates independently of law enforcement, said Dawson.

“They have already fielded 100-plus phone calls to their hotline,” he said. “They’ve already dealt with about 80 cases and made an intervention in about 40 instances.”

Those cases so far have not involved hard-core extremists, Dawson said, but troubled youth vulnerable to being radicalized.

“A lot of the people they’re encountering, they’re of the opinion they’re more kids with psychological and family issues that are turning to radicalization out of kind of rebellion,” he said.

Canadian Muslims, despite reservations about police methods, are buying in, Dawson went on. The Somali community, especially, has mobilized. Research shows young Somalis are often challenged by their peers when they spout extremist views.

“It’s tough but that’s what often would work,” he said. “It’s peer-to-peer pressure on these people to say ‘you’re being duped, you’re being fooled. God, Canada’s a great place. Why the hell would you want to do something like that?’ ”

ISIS message still has strong appeal

Nevertheless, he said, the appeal of ISIS’s message remains strong, Dawson said. As many as 15 people have been placed on peace bonds by judges, restricting their movement, behaviour and communication but stopping short of alleging criminal activity.

Social network activity has remained fairly stable, Dawson said, but continues to drive the propagation of extremist ideas despite efforts to curtail them by platforms such as Twitter and Facebook. They shut down accounts but users quickly create new ones.

“The people we’re tracking, they used to give themselves slightly different names with a new Twitter account but keep the same picture, et cetera, so that people could find them and track them again,” he said. “Now they’ve given up. They just put a number behind their name. With some individuals the numbers are up to the hundreds.”

These social media ties extend beyond retweeting standard rhetoric or ISIS propaganda to creating a sense of community with real friendships and interests, he said.

For example, two men were killed after trying to attack a “Draw Mohammed” event in Garland, Texas.The social media reaction to one of the men’s deaths was filled with reminiscences about meeting him, talking with him, what a great guy he was. It was, said Dawson, like a high school group mourning the death of the star quarterback in a car crash.

“It just had that extra quality of a group of people who felt they lost a friend,” he said.

Social media has the ability to reach potential followers who’ve never been to the conflict zone, Leuprecht said.

“I think that’s increasingly what people are deeply concerned about,” he said. “We see an increasing number of those sympathizers moving from thought to action. That’s certainly I think one of the lessons from this year.”

The effort to counter all this needs a national co-ordinator, something the Liberals promised during the election campaign, said Dawson.

Local programs can address specific community needs and the RCMP is standing up its own national program. But a federal co-ordinator could help develop guidelines, avoid piecemeal use of resources and help evaluate programs to see what works.

“That didn’t get mentioned in the Throne speech,” he said. “We don’t know quite what its status is.”

Leuprecht cautioned any anti-terror polices in the works now have to be flexible enough to adapt to events that could derail them overnight, whether in the Mideast or at home.

“We can wake up tomorrow and everything has changed,” he said. “You’ve got to leave a lot of wiggle room in whatever you announce so you have enough room to adjust.

“You want to be careful not to be too categorical about your options. Because, God forbid you have some major attack in North America, let alone in Canada, this story could very well change very quickly.”