Is John Tory the new Toronto mayoral favourite? Either way, it’s bad news for Rob Ford

While Rob Ford continues to duck questions about his troubled and hazy past, and continues to face off against frustrated Toronto residents, it appears the city's mayoral election is turning into a race between two candidates, neither of which is named Ford.

A new poll on the state of the campaign finds that Ford would place third if the election were held today, but with a new twist that former Ontario PC leader John Tory would be the one named mayor.

This comes shortly after a survey from a different polling firm found former NDP MP Olivia Chow to be in the lead, with Tory in second and Ford third.

Either way it is bad news for Ford, who is struggling to find his footing after returning to the campaign last week following a stint in rehab.

Ford has refused to answer many questions about his history with drugs and alcohol, his refusal to participate in a police investigation and a series of racist remarks and sexist and homophobic comments, which he has dismissed as a result of his drug addiction.

He has been confronted by frustrated residents at most of his few public appearances, most recently being shouted down by shirtless protesters while holding a campaign-like appearance to oppose an Eglinton Avenue transit project.

[ Related: Shirtless protesters crash Rob Ford news conference ]

Since Ford returned to Toronto last week, he and his campaign team have tried valiantly to shine various soft lights on the contest.

Last week, after avoiding reporters and cancelling several interviews, Ford appeared on Newstalk 1010 and claimed there were only two choices for mayor: him or "tax and spend" Olivia Chow.

Days later, his campaign manager (brother Doug Ford) told reporters that the race really came down to "the John Tory establishment versus the common folk that Rob represents for the last four years."

Popular sentiment and early polling suggested there was once a nugget of truth to that last statement – inasmuch as it was believed that Ford and Tory would split Toronto's conservative voting base.

But nowadays most signs point to a straight-up dogfight between Tory and Chow, with the latest poll suggesting it has become Tory's race to lose.

According to a Nanos Research poll released this week, John Tory would receive 39.1 per cent of the vote if the election were held today, while Olivia Chow would receive 32.7 per cent.

Rob Ford would receive 21.7 per cent of the vote, while all other candidates including Karen Stintz and David Soknacki would secure less than 5 per cent.

It should be noted that this Nanos poll cannot be held in comparison to the ongoing series of Forum Research polls covering the election. For one, the methodology is not the same, and the Nanos poll was commissioned by the Ontario Convenience Stores Association. For another, the questions are not asked in the same way. The Nanos Research poll notes that the results are a snapshot in time and cannot be projected onto a future vote.

The latest Forum Research poll, released last week, found that Chow was in first place (36 per cent) and Tory (27 per cent) had a one-percentage point advantage over Ford (26 per cent).

But one thing both polls had in common was the indication that Ford had little room to grow his base of support.

The Forum Research poll found that the number of people who said they would vote for Ford regardless of whom else was in the race was dropping, while the number of people who said they would never vote for Ford had increased.

In the more recent Nanos Research poll, Ford not the second choice for decided voters or those currently planning to support either of the two leading candidates.

Of those currently poised to vote Chow, 38.9 per cent say their second choice would be Tory, while 14.4 per cent say their alternative would be Soknacki.

Of those currently poised to vote Tory, 33 per cent say their second choice would be Chow, while 22.3 per cent say their alternative would be Stintz.

Ford supporters, meantime, consider Tory a strong secondary option, with 37.1 per cent of those currently planning to vote Ford. Chow is the alternative vote for 15.5 per cent of Ford supporters.

Ford has contended that polls don't mean much, and said during a radio interview last week that if he listened to polls, George Smitherman would have won the 2010 mayoral election.

That's a reference to the outsider status Ford embraced during the last campaign and has attempted to return to this time around. But it should be noted that by this time in that campaign, Ford had already become the clear polling favourite. In all but one 2010 mayoral poll conducted in July and beyond, regardless of firm, Ford was found to be the likely election winner.

Ford has a small window in which to turn his fortunes around, in the polls and on the street. Neither Tory nor Chow seem too inclined to stumble at the finish line.

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