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Justin Trudeau ticked off Canadians with abortion ruling, but they’re still supporting himTrudeau ticked off Canadians with abortion ruling – but they’re still supporting him

Justin Trudeau ticked off Canadians with abortion ruling, but they’re still supporting himTrudeau ticked off Canadians with abortion ruling – but they’re still supporting him

Liberal Party Leader Justin Trudeau believes that he has the right to vet future party candidates based on their stance on abortion, but seven out of every 10 Canadians appear to disagree.

Still, while the strong majority of respondents to a recent poll suggest federal party leaders like Trudeau have no right to exclude potential candidates from running based on whether or not they are pro-choice, the controversial move does not appear to have damaged Liberal brand and barely tarnished the image of its leader, if at all.

The poll, conducted by Ipsos Reid and released on Thursday, found that 70 per cent of Canadians disapprove of Trudeau's decision last month to exclude potential future candidates based on their position on abortion.

Thirty per cent of respondents said they felt Trudeau had the "right to decide if he only wants pro-choice candidates to run for the Liberals in the next election."

It is important to note that the question was not about whether respondents supported abortion rights or not, because the answer to that question is markedly different.

Rather, the question was whether Trudeau, as federal party leader, had the right to exclude potential candidates based on their stance on a single issue - namely abortion.

The issue at hand could have been support for pipeline development or tax increases or cyber security.

Trudeau announced in early May that future Liberal candidates would be required to agree with the party's pro-choice stance on abortion. The position riled Canadian Catholic leaders and led to Liberal MP John McKay being recorded calling Trudeau's comment a "bozo eruption."

Respondents to the Ipsos Reid poll seem to agree that Trudeau overstepped his bounds as leader, yet they don't seem prepared to punish him for it.

Previous polls suggest support for the Liberal Party hasn't waned, while Trudeau himself has only taken a slight hit recently.

An Angus Reid Global survey from May found the Liberals in a virtual tie with the Conservative Party of Canada among likely voters, with 31 per cent set to support the Tories and 30 per cent set to support the Grits.

That's even a slight improvement for the Liberals, which held the support of 29 per cent of likely voters in April.

Trudeau personally doesn't seem to be faring much worse. A Forum Research poll from late May found that Trudeau's level of support dipped from 46 per cent in April to 43 per cent in May, which Forum Research president Lorne Bozinoff said appeared to be reaction to Trudeau's "restrictions on Liberal candidates with pro-life views."

As the Huffington Post noted, however, the survey did not include any questions related to the abortion debate, and Trudeau's drop in support fell within the poll's margin of error.

If anything, Trudeau's pro-choice stance appears to be moving in the same direction as society's general position.

Thursday’s Ipsos Reid poll did ask Canadians for their position on abortion and Canada's lack of abortion laws. One third, or 33 per cent, of respondents felt the absence of a law was unacceptable, down three points since the same question was asked in 2010.

Meantime, the number of people who approved of Canada not having an abortion law had increase 13 points to 40 per cent. Those who said they didn't care one way or the other was 27 per cent, which itself was down seven points from 2010.

The crux of the abortion debate comes down to this: 52 per cent of Canadians feel that a women's right to choose should not be constrained and that abortion should be allowed "whenever a woman decides she wants one."

Another 24 per cent of Canadians feel abortion should be allowed under certain circumstances (such as the instance of rape), nine per cent feel abortion should only be allowed if the mother's life is in danger, and four per cent say abortion should never be allowed.

Indeed, there is little appetite to reopen the abortion debate and Trudeau's stance opposing the candidacy of those who don't support the party's pro-life stance doesn't appear to hurt him.

More than half (51 per cent) of voters say Trudeau's stance will have no impact on the way they vote. Nearly one quarter (22 per cent) of Canadians say they are more likely to vote for the Liberals based on Trudeau's stance, while 27 per cent say they are now less likely to vote Liberal.

The largest negative response came from Ontario where 31 per cent of respondents said they were now less likely to support the party and only 19 per cent said they were now more likely.

But Liberal hopes were actually improved in Quebec (25 per cent more likely, 21 per cent less likely) and British Columbia (27 per cent more likely and 22 per cent less likely).

What all this means come election season isn't clear, but there is clearly no significant public movement against Trudeau's Liberals based on the new stance. Yet the majority clearly agrees that Trudeau overstepped his bounds as party leader.

There is an old adage on the topic of bold action, which states that it is better to ask for forgiveness than for permission.

Trudeau has surely heard that before. But this time, it seems he won’t even need to apologize.

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