New Toronto mayoral poll shows Rob Ford in three-way tie for lead

The latest poll from Toronto's frenetic mayoral race has the three top competitors in a statistical tie, giving troubled Rob Ford reason to believe his re-election hopes are not yet dead.

But while Ford's numbers have seen a slight improvement since his disastrous return from rehab, they are still nowhere near the high watermark that suggested he was a dominant political juggernaut before being caught in the latest drug and alcohol scandal that forced him into exile.

The latest numbers from Forum Research suggest Ford's base of support has somewhat stabilized in the month since he returned from rehab, while the momentum that elevated Olivia Chow in his absence had somewhat diminished.

According to a survey of 1,063 Torontonians, Chow (29 per cent), John Tory (28 per cent) and Ford (27 per cent) are in a statistical tie when the public is asked who they would vote for in a five-way race that also included Karen Stintz (six per cent) and David Soknacki (five per cent).

Of interest, every candidate improved their lot since the last Forum poll on July 2, except Chow.

While Chow dropped seven percentage points (from 36 per cent), Ford, Tory and Soknacki each added a single percentage point to their total. Stintz doubled her lot, rising from three per cent support to six per cent.

Chow still holds serve among the top three candidates, however. When asked to choose between the top three competitors, 35 per cent of respondents said they would vote for Chow, while 32 per cent said they would back Tory and 27 per cent sided with Ford.

Ford's approval rating, however, remains the lowest among all five major candidates. At 33 per cent, it is significantly lower than key rivals Chow (54 per cent) and Tory (67 per cent).

More concerning for Ford's camp is that his approval rating remains a shadow of what it was in mid-April, before the Globe and Mail obtained photos of what Ford later confirmed showed him smoking crack in his sister's basement, and the Toronto Sun released audio of an drunk Ford using racist language and speaking about a rival mayoral candidate in a sexually aggressive nature.

In mid-April, Ford's approval rating was 46 per cent. Polling numbers suggested at the time it was a two-way race between himself and Chow.

"It appears that Rob Ford is not going away anytime soon, but neither has he been able to maintain his pre-rehab levels of popularity, even among the demographic groups we know are sympathetic to him. John Tory, once a second place contestant, is now in the front ranks, but it appears advantage is still to Chow," said Forum Research President, Dr. Lorne Bozinoff.

Indeed, the Forum Research poll has found that Ford's fortunes have improved slightly on questions of his character.

In the latest poll, 28 per cent of respondents said they would vote for Ford, up from 25 per cent at the start of the month, and 66 per cent said they would not vote for Ford regardless of who else was on the ballot, down from 69 per cent.

And 59 per cent of Toronto still believed Ford should resign immediately, whereas 62 per cent had previously held the stance.

While every candidate will tell you that the only survey that matters is the one held on Election Day, this is surely come as welcome news for Ford, who in recent polls had slipped to third place while Tory and Chow fought for the lead.

After his return from seeking treatment for drug and alcohol abuse, Ford saw his poll numbers drop to new lows after mixing a half-hearted apology in with a campaign speech as his first order of business.

More recently, Ford has returned to railing against spending at city hall, most pointedly targeting a Cherry Beach development he claims was mismanaged in his absence (though the project actually dates back to 2010).

He has most recently garnered headlines for planning to hold a large party in a Scarborough park, which opponents claim contravenes city bylaws that prohibit campaign events from being held on city property. The Fords claim Ford Fest is not a campaign event, though NOW Magazine received a robocall invitation to the event that indicates its purpose is to rally "support" for Rob Ford.

Unsubstantiated claims of misspending at city hall and new opportunities to skirt city rules and regulations? Seems like Rob Ford is back, folks. Now it's just a question of whether his numbers will return to their previous highs.

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