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Will non-political third parties have an influence on the Canadian election?

With the extended 11-week election upon us and over two dozen third-parties looking to influence voters, you may be wondering if any of them actually have a chance at affecting the election outcome in any way.

These aren't actually political parties, but unions, veterans groups, animal rights groups — groups looking to defeat Stephen Harper's conservative government and groups representing a particular issue like heathcare, open Internet or safe technology. All of them are looking to influence the election in some way, but it's a steep hill to climb.

Nelson Wiseman, director of the Canadian Studies Program in the Department of Political Science at the University of Toronto, predicts third parties won't have much influence at all.

“They're limited in how much money they can spend now, which is one of the reason the election was called early because they could've spent all the money they wanted until the writ was dropped. Now that the writ's been dropped, they're limited, so they won't have much effect.”

Thanks to the Canada Elections Act, third parties can only spend a total of $439,410.81 on advertising during the entire 78-day election and only $8,788.22 in any one of the 338 electoral districts.

“[Third parties] won't be able to buy TV advertising — maybe one ad, possibly, and some might put out pamphlets, but I don't think they'll have much effect," Weisman said.

Swift Voting

Money isn't everything. Leadnow is one third-party that has garnered lots of media attention for its innovative campaign to mobilize voters with very little money at their disposal.

“Leadnow is trying to drive the greatest impact by targeting really close ridings as a way to get rid of Harper,” said Nora Loreto, election fact-checker for Rabble.ca and editor of the Canadian Association of Labour Media.

“All politicians have to play within the same first past-the-post system and Harper was elected with only 39 per cent of Canadian voter's support, so what Leadnow is doing is operating within the same first past-the-post system to try and flip that margin to get rid of Harper and conservative candidates.”

It's known as Leadnow's Vote Together Campaign. It asks those who live in 72 swing ridings — where a conservative could potentially win with less that 50 per cent of the vote — to pledge to vote together for the candidate determined by Leadnow to be most likely to defeat that riding's conservative candidate. If enough people vote for this candidate in each swing riding, Leadnow believes the Harper Government will be defeated.

“We perceive our voting system to be broken and we think we need to vote together for the best local candidate who can defeat the Harper conservatives,” said Leadnow executive director Lindsay Poaps.

“Our Vote Together Pledge commits people to doing just that and as part of signing that pledge, you become part of our program where we will help educate you on the issues, educate you on where the parties stand on those issues and invite you to participate in a process where you can help recommend the best candidate in your local riding who you think can defeat the Harper conservatives.”

So far it seems to be working: over 60,000 Canadians have already signed the Vote Together Pledge. Meanwhile, Leadnow is phoning into those 72 contentious ridings, mobilizing more people to take the pledge. In 12 target ridings of those 72, they have boots on the ground to encourage residents to get out and vote.

“We think that through our approach, we can make sure we don't split vote like what happened in the last election,” Poaps said.

Outing the discourse

With third-parties not being able to spend as much on advertising, many welcome being forced to use a more grass roots approach to get their message across. Even those that specifically target Harper and the conservatives favour a greater focus on the issues over sponsored attack ads because they believe it will have greater resonance with voters.

“We actually have buttons that say, 'No More Harper' but the goal of this campaign is outing the discourse. It's about getting people talking, getting people engaged and getting people to believe they can have an impact,” says Jo-Anne Raynes, leader of Voters Against Harper.

“Who knows what impact this [campaign] will have, but in my mind, just getting a few more people to really engage has more longevity. It's not just this election. We really have to look at how we reform our parliamentary process and the role of the Prime Minister.”

So far Raynes has been able to distribute about 500 buttons simply through her own extended social circle and talking to people directly. It's a number she's very satisfied with and she still has over a month to go until the election.

“We've got another couple of weeks and the more we can get people out there distributing buttons, having conversations, talking it up, at least we've done our bit,” she says.

 

Greater than one candidate

 

Thomas Beaver leads the Canadian Veterans ABC Campaign 2015 and though ABC stands for “Anyone But the Conservatives,” its focus is really on the plight of sick and disabled veterans.

As a disabled veteran Beaver receives $4,000 a month as part of his veteran's pension, but those who leave war with an injury after 2006 aren't so lucky. They receive only a lump sum of $100,000 for their entire lives. Add to that, those of Beaver's generation don't qualify for the benefits added to The New Veteran's Charter, while the newer veteran's don't qualify for the benefits older veteran's get.

“I got young soldiers phoning me at three'o clock in the morning with guns to their heads at least once a month or a wife calling me saying she's being abused because her solider husband has PTSD,” says Beaver.

“I recognize this new charter was introduced by the liberals, but the conservatives have had eight years to reform it and nothing has been done. The legislation actually says it should be reviewed every two years and in eight years it has been looked at once.”

So far the ABC campaign has over 12,000 likes on Facebook, lots of media attention and millions of views on their website. Though Beaver believes his group has a good chance of influencing the election, he realizes his group is one among many hoping for a Harper loss.

“It's not only us, we're only one peace of the pie when it comes to groups organizing against this government and there has to be a reason why,” says Beaver.

 

Keeping government accountable

But not every third-party has a particular candidate or party in their sights. Some hope to play watchdog for the entire political process. Peter Coleman of The National Citizens Coalition (a group once led by Stephen Harper himself — see above) hopes for a fiscally responsible government, but mainly wants to make sure that whoever gets elected keeps their promises.

“We're going to try to force all the parties to come out and say what their platforms are going to be. Our biggest concern is fiscal responsibility and government's trying to spend relatively within their means even though we're in a tough economic time,” he said.

Though Coleman agrees a voter's individual voice can get drowned out during an election campaign, he believes there is strength in numbers and The National Citizen's Coalition is enough of a collective voice to provide a counter argument to “big government and big union spending.” He hopes to wake candidates up to the reality of paying their bills and balancing the country's books.

“It's a pretty noisy, crowded environment, as far as competing voices go and it's tough. You've got to try and be consistent with your messaging, do as much as you can on social media and do your radio ads and print ads because TV ads are too expensive for groups like us to do,” Coleman said.

“We're out looking for the average person that has no say and has no voice. There's enough voices on the left that want big government and Harper gone just because they want Harper gone. Our difference is, we don't really care who's in power. We just want somebody who can run this country properly.”

What About Astroturfing?

Of course with so many third-parties registered, astroturfing is always a concern — party operatives posing as grassroots third-party campaigns to bolster their agenda and skew the vote.

In a recent blog entry, workplace lawyer and general litigator Dennis Buchanan argues that astroturfing is illegal during elections.

I would argue, on a fairly solid basis, that political astroturfing is illegal during an election campaign.  Under the Canada Elections Act, 'election advertising' is broadly defined, including any transmission that takes a position on an issue with which a party or candidate is associated,” he says.

The only exception is “the transmission by an individual, on a non-commercial basis on what is commonly known as the internet, of her or her personal political views.”

This means any advertising during an election is legally required to include who authorized it. But between election periods it's game on for astroturfing. “I know of no basis for arguing that political astroturfing would be unlawful. It wouldn't fall under the Competitions Act prohibitions, and I doubt it would come within any CRTC guidelines such as those that so many politicians violated with automated diallers.” Buchanan wrote.