Hillary Clinton for president: She will run, she will win, but she will struggle

There are three questions surrounding Hillary Clinton: Will she run? If she runs, will she win? And if she wins, will she be President Barack Obama in a skirt or Bill Clinton in a pantsuit?

Will She Run? The Hillary Inevitability, far in advance of the 2016 U.S. presidential election, has a “déjà vu all over again” atmospheric. That's because 2008 was really supposed to be Hillary’s year: She had the highest name recognition, deep financing, major political backers and her politically canny husband to game-plan campaign tactics.

But a funny thing happened on the way to the nomination: "Black swan" Senator Barak Obama ate Hillary’s lunch with adroit use of caucus voters, great speeches, and a “legend” (first serious black presidential candidate), Hillary couldn’t match.

Hillary now has spent six years mulling over errors of commission and omission. During this entr’acte, she has been secretary of state, written (with adroit “ghosts”) an elephant-choker book (Hard Decisions), and awaits the arrival of her first grandchild.

[ David Kilgour: Hillary will run, she will win, and she will be excellent ]

Now it is Hillary’s time. Polls suggest overwhelming (and rising) percentages of respondents support her as the Democratic nominee. One poll says 63 per cent of Democrats would vote for her (versus 12 percent for Biden as next closest). Other names are single digits and media-bruited-about Senator Elizabeth Warren barely registers and is a chattering-class scarecrow designed to pull Clinton leftward.    

This time there is no black swan in ambush. Essentially, only Hillary can derail Hillary. Two questions emerge: health and desire.

First, Hillary is old; if elected in 2016, at 69 she would be almost the oldest individual ever elected to a first term as president. And observers continue to wonder about her 2012 concussion and its related effects. Husband Bill reportedly said that it took her six months to recover fully, contrasting the blunt State Department spokesperson’s claim she was fully recovered when she returned to State a month after the incident.

Second, is there fire in the belly? Running for public office (or holding it) is a relentless grind; Hillary is a polarizing figure, and the temptation to be a grandmother and kick back must impinge on her consciousness.

But her “legend” — to be the first female president — is overwhelming. She will run for the nomination and win it.

But Will She Win the Election? You need someone to beat someone. And the Republicans do not have a “someone.” Or rather, they have too many contender-pretenders, which means they have nobody. There are assorted plausible/flawed candidates: Romney Redo (same liabilities as in 2012); Jeb Bush (even his mother says the U.S. has had enough Bushes); Chris Christie (Governor-NJ) with “Bridgegate” plaguing him; Mario Rubio (Senator-FL) attractive to Hispanics but dissonant to conservatives on immigration policy; Ted Cruz (Senator-TX) Tea Party favorite and commensurately limited; Rand Paul (Senator-KY) a smoother version of his Libertarian father.

It is not forlorn hope for Republicans. Historically, at the eight-year Democrat mark, there is “time for a change” national mood. Overwhelmingly, voters believe the USA is wrong-directioned. The economy continues to sputter, Obama’s landmark health care legislation remains distinctly unpopular and his foreign policy management ricochets from mediocre to tragic.

Clinton is divisive. Her book tour showed rust and attenuated political instincts in dealing with her personal wealth. Although not personally responsible for the Benghazi debacle, relentless Republican pounding may convince the electorate she was responsible. And putting Bill back in the White House (separate bedrooms?) still offputs many.

The November election will be pivotal. Republicans must build momentum for 2016 by winning control of Congress. With such results, they can use “power of the purse” to reverse Obama legislative and bureaucratic actions anathema to conservatives. There will be a fighting chance for 2016 victory.

But President Hillary—Obama in a skirt? Bill in a pantsuit? Neither. She will push hard on domestic issues—her health plan in 1997 was wider than Obamacare, and she won’t hesitate to tax the rich. Although not a feminist, she will push women’s-children’s issues harder than minority concerns (arguing that women’s issues are majority issues). She will be less enthralled by environmentalists, so Keystone’s chances would improve.

Four years as SecState has taught that the U.S. cannot lead from behind. Her foreign policy will be more aggressive — Thatcher not Merkel. She has a better sense of things military reflected in her excellent relations with former Secretary of Defense Robert Gates, while Obama remains clueless.

Ultimately, however, she will be ambushed by “events” — the “unknown unknowns” that plague leadership: another recession; Russian revanchism; war in the Middle East (mix/match Iran-Iraq-Syria-Israel). It will be a tough presidency.

David T. Jones is a retired State Department Senior Foreign Service Career Officer who has published several hundred books, articles, columns, and reviews on U.S. - Canadian bilateral issues and general foreign policy. During a career that spanned over 30 years, he concentrated on politico-military issues, serving as advisor for two Army Chiefs of Staff. He has just published Alternative North Americas: What Canada and the United States Can Learn from Each Other.