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First Down: Risk rising for once dependable Alfred Morris

First Down: Risk rising for once dependable Alfred Morris

As the summer heats up, Yahoo's resident Noisemaker will offer his hot takes on specific players, trends and strategies much discussed in Fantasyland. Naturally, whatever he forecasts, the opposite is bound to occur. Feel free to offer your two cents in the comments section below.

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The Buzz: In a recent interview, Washington head coach Jay Gruden revealed rookie Matt Jones could cut into Alfred Morris' workload creating a dreaded RBBC of unknown distribution. According to Gruden, in order to run the ball effectively "you gotta have a couple guys that can tote it." Telling. After touching the rock 85 percent of the time from 2012-2014, Morris' reign as lead horse appears to be in jeopardy.

Why prospective buyers should worry: Morris was the quintessential Shanahan back. He's a thickly built, one-cut downhill runner capable of piling up carries and yards. However, it's a different era in the nation's capital. Gruden and offensive coordinator Sean McVay are of the RBBC mindset. As OC for the Cincinnati Bengals, Gruden almost exclusively featured a one-back system with Cedric Benson in 2011 and BenJarvus Green-Ellis in 2012, but after adding Giovani Bernard via the Draft two years ago, he turned to a hybrid backfield. In 2013, the Bengals ranked top-10 in points and yards. To jump-start a Redskins team that finished near the bottom in both categories last year and in an attempt to salvage RGIII's career, Gruden will want to maximize ground matchups and keep his RBs fresh.

Also concerning for Morris is his porous performance as a receiver. Jones, who was underutilized during his college days at Florida, has soft hands and a route-running knack. At a monstrous 6-foot-2, 226-pounds, he's also an impactful downhill runner. Most importantly, he's an outstanding pass blocker who typically thwarts oncoming blitzers. Because Morris would find it difficult catching a softly tossed beach ball and due to his next-to-last ranking in pass-blocking efficiency last year per Pro Football Focus, it seems inevitable Jones will dominate action on third/pass downs. Given the rookie's size, he may also wrest away some early-down work. It's no stretch to think he tallies 10-12 touches per game right away. Assuming the 'Skins average at or near the 25.1 rush attempts they did a season ago, that would leave Morris, already a liability in PPR leagues, with only 13-15 touches per game. And a number of those carries could come against stacked boxes. RGIII must exhibit competency throwing the ball to spark the ground game, which, based on his recent putridity, is a stretch. The Patriots may show contrition before that happens.

Why amplified concerns shouldn't scare anyone: Despite Gruden's gushy comments, Jones is still an unpolished rookie who never exceeded 180 touches in a season during his three years at Florida. Though he's trending in the right direction, he has miles to go before nailing down a significant role in 2015. And let's not forget what Morris accomplished since kicking down the door his rookie season in 2012. He gained 60.7 percent of his yards after contact, finished top-15 in points per snap among RBs every year and ranked 5, 14 and 13 from 2012-2014 in total fantasy points at RB. Behind a rebuilt line and in an offense that should lean heavily on its backs, provided the defense can play at a respectable level, the established veteran might be safer than most think – emphasis on 'might.'

Fearless Forecast: Morris' days as a trustworthy RB2 could be numbered. In our recent 12-team .5 PPR mock, he went No. 35 overall (RB16), which is about right. However, in a 14-team full-point PPR draft conducted last week by the Rotowire folks, he plummeted to the last pick of Round 4 (No. 55 overall). Because of the increased risk, selecting Melvin Gordon (39.5 Yahoo ADP, RB15), Frank Gore (66.4, RB19) or even Latavius Murray (77.8, RB20) over him is recommended, even in standard formats. A final output around 230-250 touches, 1,000 total yards and 6-8 TDs seems appropriate. 'The Butler' has served millions, but given the situation he isn't worth a top-30 pick (29.3 ADP, RB13). Let him toil in someone else's Bat Cave. As for Jones, he's a late-round lottery ticket worth stashing in 12-team and deeper leagues, particularly those that score handsomely for receptions.

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