NFL Over/Under: Are early drafters overreaching for Randle?

Fantasy is a speculative game. Predict the future, and you look like a genius. Don't, and you're painfully human. Gazing into the crystal ball, here's our view on 10 intriguing rookie over/unders for the upcoming season.

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In a recent full-point, 12-team industry draft, Joseph Randle was plucked in Round 3 (No. 32 overall). Equally mind-blowing, according to Fantasy Football Calculator his draft stock has spiked a full five rounds since late May (40.4 ADP, RB20), leaving potential investors wondering if there is enough 'meat on the bone.' With that in mind, Randle finishes among fantasy RBs this fall 24.5.

Brad – UNDER. Darren McFadden and Ryan Williams are made from dissoluble materials and Lance Dunbar is a change-of-pace back. Despite his loud mouth and affinity for stealing underwear, Randle is the best option Jerry Jones currently has. His 51-carry sample size from '14 was small, but he gained over 60 percent of his yards after contact. Impressive. Running behind an elite offensive line, he's a strong candidate to log 13-16 touches per game. There's little room for profit, but a finish in the RB19-RB23 range feels right.

Scott – OVER. I hate covering the cost of helium on this type of player, a low-rep standout who has shown no proof of being able to handle a legitimate starter's workload. The Cowboys have several ways to run this potential backfield, and I suspect they'll keep shuffling and reshuffling the pecking order. There are too many high-floor players to focus on in the early rounds.

Andy – OVER. C'mon. He carried the ball just 51 times last season. You can't reasonably assume that his per-touch production would be the same (or close) at a much larger workload. And anyway, this backfield reeks of RBBC. Picking him in the third round is the sort of "LOOK AT ME!" thing that sometimes happens in industry leagues, but it's silly.

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Because of the bottomless depth at QB, the fantasy community is divided on whether or not Andrew Luck should be selected in Round 1 of standard leagues (4 points/pass TD). Total touchdowns in 2015 for the splotchy bearded passer 45.5 .

Andy  – UNDER. Like everyone else, I love him. But a million things need to go just right for anyone to reach a historically significant total like this.

Dalton – OVER. He totaled 43 last year during just his third season in the league, and he'll be my pick to win MVP in 2015. He's a monster. Having said that, I still wouldn't take him in the first round.

Scott  – UNDER. I've been a huge Luck fan for his entire pro career (often writing the -pro side in a Spin Doctors), but a lot of things fell right en route to 40 passing touchdowns last year. Somehow, Luck got to that number without anyone snagging more than eight; that's just about impossible to repeat.

Can he throw another 19 scores to tight ends and linemen? T.Y. Hilton is a wonderful talent, but he's a deep threat, not a touchdown gobbler. Andre Johnson has never been a dynamic touchdown man, for all of his talent. Ahmad Bradshaw's six touchdown catches were an obvious fluke. And if the Colts show any improvement running the ball or on defense, Luck's volume could take a modest hit.

Travis Kelce, who played on only 66 percent of KC snaps last year, receiving yards in what should be an expanded role 774.5.

Andy – UNDER. There's no profit to be found with Kelce ... none. His quarterback situation is disastrous, and the hype here is absurd. Even if he reaches this good-not-great yardage total, he's not the primary option near the goal line.

Brad – OVER. This offseason Kelce prepped his body for what's expected to be a rigorous workload. His increased bulk, open-field shiftiness, vertical speed and blocking ability should have him on the field 75-80 percent of the time. On some 7-8 targets per game, I expect him to sail past the proposed number, especially with Jeremy Maclin wearing red.

Brandon – OVER. What am I missing here? He had 862 receiving yards last season, and his playing time is expected to sharply increase with Anthony Fasano out of the picture. Yes, he'll have competition for targets from newly acquired wideout Jermey Maclin, but Maclin is a field stretcher, whereas Kelce lives in a more advantageous zip code for the limtations of Alex Smith's arm.

Sophomore standouts Davante Adams, John Brown, Charles Johnson and Allen Robinson have attracted headlines in OTAs and minicamp. Which has the biggest breakout potential? BONUS: Include a Fearless Forecast (Rec-YDS-TD).

Brad – ROBINSON. Green Bay's offense is unrivaled, but Adams' path to targets is complicated with Jordy and Cobb higher in the pecking order. Robinson, even with Allen Hurns and Julius Thomas around, should attract a lion's share of targets this year. Considering how soft the Jags defense is and based on the WR's red-zone upside he has WR2 appeal. Fearless Forecast: 71 receptions, 1075 receiving yards, 7 touchdowns.

Brandon – JOHNSON. But no one should care about OTAs. You're better off ignoring those blurbs entirely. Adams might be the best player from this group, but Johnson is close. Also, I'm a big believer in Teddy Bridgewater. (It's an absolute joke that Bortles went ahead of him. So Jags.)

Dalton – ROBINSON. He's going to be a target monster as the team's clear No. 1 wideout. Quarterback play is a question mark, but Robinson impressed as a rookie and was reportedly a standout at OTAs. I'll predict he becomes the first Jacksonville wide receiver to eclipse 1,000 yards in a decade. Fearless Forecast: 80-1100-7.

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Rookie RB Re-rank. List the following in order from greatest to least fantasy .5 PPR impact in 2015: Todd Gurley, Melvin Gordon, T.J. Yeldon, Tevin Coleman, Ameer Abdullah, Duke Johnson, David Cobb.

Brandon – 1) Gordon 2) Gurley 3) Abdullah 4) Duke Johnson (love him, but still not sure if he'll have a role that compares to the guys I put in front of him) 5) Yeldon 6) Coleman 7) Cobb

Dalton – 1) Gordon 2) Yeldon 3) Gurley 4) Coleman 5) Abdullah 6) Cobb 7) Johnson - For me it was really close between Coleman and Abdullah, as I have them currently ranked back-to-back on my RB board.

Scott – 1) Gordon 2) Yeldon 3) Gurley 4) Abdullah 5) Johnson 6) Coleman 7) Cobb

Brad – 1) Gordon 2) Gurley 3) Coleman 4) Yeldon 5) Abdullah 6) Cobb 7) Duke. For the record, Coleman/Yeldon/Abdullah are separated by the slimmest of margins.

Dez Bryant, who's drawn a line in the sand about his contract situation, regular season games missed this fall .5.

Dalton – UNDER. Of course there's a chance he gets hurt, but he's been extremely durable, and the bottom line is I wouldn't move him down my rankings whatsoever based on this holdout threat. I'd be shocked if Bryant willingly sits out a single game.

Scott – UNDER. These standoffs so very rarely turn into anything when the real games come, and the game checks are in the balance.

Andy – UNDER. He's played the full 16 in each of the past three seasons. Dez wouldn't gain a thing by sitting in the opener. No leverage there. One of the worst ideas I can recall, in a sport that produces many of 'em.

QB conundrum. What widely drafted QB2 has the best shot to penetrate the QB1 ranks in 12-team leagues: Carson Palmer, Joe Flacco, Sam Bradford, Jay Cutler or Teddy Bridgewater.

Scott – PALMER, because he'll have to - the line and the backfield aren't set up to do much in the desert. But don't forget a sleeper not even mentioned in this question, Cincinnati's Andy Dalton. Everything fell wrong for him in 2014, and then the Bengals collapsed in the playoffs, their usual thing. It's gotten to the point that Dalton is so overrated, he's actually underrated again.

Andy – I'd love to say TEDDY, because I think he'll ultimately be recognized as the best from this group. But for a year, it's probably PALMER. The team context is too good, from coach to supporting cast.

Brad – PALMER. Bridgewater is a very close second, but I'm enamored with the Red Baron. He was a top-10 QB when on the field last year ('14 extrapolation over 16 games: 4,336 yards, 29 TDs). Most appetizing, Bruce Arians plans to install a no-huddle offense, a scheme that should maximize Palmer's workload. The personnel around him – Larry Fitzgerald, John Brown, Michael Floyd, Andre Ellington and David Johnson – are constructed for a prolific pass game. And the Cardinals' enhanced offensive line should provide better protection.

Fanatics' concerns over C.J. Anderson continue to escalate despite encouraging words mouthed recently by Broncos head coach Gary Kubiak. BUST or BARGAIN at his current 21.2 Yahoo ADP?

Andy – It's the right price. I don't think he's a steal at 21, nor do I think he's a silly pick. I actually think a late second round pick feels right for a guy with such a high ceiling and such a low floor. Well done, Yahoo community.

Brad – BARGAIN. The Broncos' patchwork offensive line understandably has people on edge, but Anderson is the best fit for Kubiak's zone-blocking system. He makes guys miss (No. 4 in elusive rating in '14), is a proven receiver and pass blocks enthusiastically, a must-have attribute when playing alongside Peyton Manning. He was a top-three performer over the second half of 2014. If the o-line melds quickly this summer, he should pick up where he left off. Substantiated by my Broncos insiders, Ball and Hillman are minimal threats.

Brandon – BARGAIN. I am so over Montee Ball, and I don't deem him to be a worthy threat to Anderson at all. Just watch the game film - it doesn't lie. It's obvious that Anderson is a much, much better back, and I'd certainly take him inside the top 20 in what should be a nice running system in Denver under Gary Kubiak's guidance.

Megatron was, for all intents and purposes, a mega-bust for those who sank a top-pick in him last season. Nagging injuries explain the decline, but he's no longer a spring chicken entering his Age 30 season. Final WR rank this year 5.5.

Brad – OVER. His persistent knee problems should have potential suitors on edge. When healthy, he's a dominant threat in every capacity. His second year in Joe Lombardi's New Orleans-styled offense also lends confidence. However, as stated above, he's isn't a youngin' anymore and Matthew Stafford hasn't exactly lit the world on fire. He'll be good, not spectacular. I'll gladly minimize the risk and invest in Julio Jones and Alshon Jeffery over him.

Brandon – OVER/UNDER. I put both O/U down because I suspect I will waffle back and forth on this one all summer. Currently I have him slotted as my No. 5 WR, but I have Julio Jones at No. 6 and my mind swaps these two around any time the wind changes direction. Both are supremely talented, but carry a health risk tag.

Dalton – UNDER. It's likely his prime is now behind him, but Johnson remains a star and should still be treated as such. He's one season removed from an 84-1492-12 campaign (over just 14 games). He's no longer the No. 1 fantasy WR, but Johnson is still top five.

Membership in the C.J. Spiller fan club has climbed with the mercury. Many, particularly PPR players, anticipate a rebirth on the Bayou. Receptions this year for the new Saint 62.5.

Brandon – OVER, by a mile. The Saints have led the league in RB receptions in each of the past four seasons, and their lowest RB reception total in that span is 132, which is more than twice this number. With only Mark Ingram and Khiry Robinson, two players that have had very little involvement in the passing game in the past, vying for targets with Spiller out of the backfield, I wouldn't be surprised if Spiller catches 80-90 passes.

Dalton – OVER. He's actually never even reached 45 receptions in a season during his career, but he's a capable pass catcher for sure, and clearly the Saints brought him in envisioning Spiller filling the old Darren Sproles role in New Orleans.

Scott – OVER, probably easily. This is what the Saints do, they go bananas throwing to their backs. It should be a blast watching Spiller playing for a team that actually groks his talent and goes out of its way to feature it. The Buffalo experience was a communal migraine for everyone. 

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