Canada's winter forecast may turn out to be one of the warmest ever

Winter is coming, Canadians, but we’re on track for one of the warmest ever.

That’s according to AccuWeather Global Weather Center, which says El Niño once again is to blame.

“We’re thinking this is going to be the second strongest El Niño on record,” senior meteorologist Brett Anderson told Yahoo Canada by phone from AccuWeather’s headquarters near State College, Pennsylvania.  “It’s definitely one of the top two, with the one in 1997/98 being the strongest on record. That has a lot of influence on the weather right across Canada, in the winter especially. This will be one of the warmer winters on record, definitely in the top five.”

So all of the hopeful skiers in Vancouver who purchased ski passes for Grouse, Cypress or Seymour mountains—those hills that are a short drive from the city centre—may well be out of luck.

Western Canadians should expect above- to well above-normal temperatures as a prevailing westerly flow delivers milder Pacific air across the region for the 2015-16 winter, AccuWeather reports.

Also heating things up in the West is the warming of ocean waters, which have been one to three degrees above normal for the last two years, Anderson noted.

“In Western Canada it’s expected it will be a tranquil winter with not a lot of extremes,” he said.

But despite the call for warm temperatures, forecasters are also calling for decent snowfall in the coastal mountains, which include Whistler-Blackcomb.

“We’re predicting a mild winter in terms of temperature, but we do think there will be more storms compared to last year, especially in the first half of winter,” Anderson said. “Not necessarily in Vancouver, but the coastal mountains will have more opportunity for snowfall compared to last winter. Overall the snowfall in the mountains will be close to normal, especially in the first half of the season.”

Prairies to get dry, mild conditions

Skiers in other parts of Western Canada may be disappointed: snowfall will underachieve this winter in the Rockies of eastern British Columbia and western Alberta.

Most of the snow in this region will hit during the first half of the winter before a drier pattern sets up in January and February.

Drier and milder weather resulting from the Polar jet stream being displaced farther to the north means a limited amount and duration of Arctic air masses that normally impact the region.

Average temperatures could be as many as three degrees Celsius above normal this winter in cities such as Edmonton, Calgary and Regina.

Increased risk for ice storms in Ontario, Quebec

Temperatures across Ontario and Quebec are not expected to be as harshly cold as they were last year. And much of Ontario will have less snowfall compared to normal, as the main storm track shifts to the south and east during January and February.

Unfortunately, the region could also see an increased risk of ice storms, especially from eastern Ontario to southern Quebec, including in Ottawa and Montreal.

As the storm track shifts toward the East Coast in January and February, there

will be a greater risk for “significant snowfall events” across eastern Quebec, including the Gaspe Peninsula.

Stormy but mild conditions for most of Atlantic Canada

The combination of a strong El Niño and warmer-than-usual sea-surface waters in the region will lead to slightly higher temperatures this winter compared to normal.

The milder conditions mean a greater likelihood of storms that initially bring snow but change to ice or rain, especially across Nova Scotia.

Much of Newfoundland will experience a milder winter with fewer major storms.

From New Brunswick to Prince Edward Island, winter could turn snowy again in the second half of the season.

The silver lining

With the warm winter predicted, Canadians can look forward to having more money in their pockets: “This should lead to a noticeable difference in heating bills compared to last year,” Anderson said.