New climate report states ‘human influence on climate clear’

The newest report on the state of Earth's climate sends the strongest message yet on how human activities are affecting the planet, saying that it's extremely likely that we are the dominant cause of the warming we've been seeing in the climate since the mid-20th century.

The statements coming from the newly released IPCC climate change report are clear: the signs we are seeing in the Earth's climate system leave no doubt that it is warming, many of the changes we have been seeing since 1950 are unprecedented, and it is extremely likely — with a 95-100% certainty — that the greenhouse gases we are putting into the atmosphere are having a stronger effect on these changes than any natural influence.

Highlights of the report include strong statements that we have been seeing successively warmer temperatures each of the last three decades, with all three decades the warmest going back for 160 years and that 30-years period likely being the warmest the Northern Hemisphere has seen is nearly 600 years. It also says that the oceans are seeing the majority of the warming, acidity levels in the water are rising due to the absorption of carbon dioxide, and the rate of sea level rise since the mid-19th century has been higher than the average rate set during the past two millennia. Additionally, the ice sheets of Greenland and Antarctica are melting, glaciers around the world are shrinking, the extent and thickness of Arctic sea ice are getting smaller, and the spring snow cover in the Northern Hemisphere is decreasing.

All of this due to the impact of the greenhouse gases we are putting into the atmosphere, which are at levels higher than the past 800,000 years.

The consequences of all this?

We are likely to see an increase in global temperatures of more than 1.5°C by the end of this century, with some projections putting that at over 2.0°C. We can expect to see more, longer-lasting heat waves. Regions that see wetter weather will tend to see even more, while drier regions will likely see even less rain than they already do — meaning that there is the potential for worse flooding and worse drought than we are already seeing. Ocean levels are expected to rise, at an even faster rate, as the oceans continue to warm and glaciers and ice sheets continue to melt.

The dire conclusion of the report, as stated by Thomas Stocker, one of the world's leading climate scientists: "As a result of our past, present and expected future emissions of CO2, we are committed to climate change, and effects will persist for many centuries even if emissions of CO2 stop."

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Those that try to deny that our activities are pushing the Earth's climate towards disaster will no doubt be pulling out their tackle box of tactics to spin this in a way that they think will strengthen their position, or at least weaken the consensus on the science and the message of this report.

However, the report represents decades of solid science and studies by the world's leading researchers, and it delivers a powerful message that we need to change the way we live our lives and how we treat the planet that is our home.

To put its message in another way that might have more of an impact: the chances that nature itself is the main cause of the changes we're seeing — the increased temperatures, the melting ice, the worsening droughts, increase in the number of unprecedented weather events — are considered extremely unlikely. That translates to a less than 5% chance.

With what's at stake — our health and welfare, our homes, our livelihoods and even our lives — betting on odds that small that we can just keep going as we have been is a really bad move.

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