Could we suffer another power failure like the August 14th, 2003 blackout?

Ten years ago today, I was one of the roughly 50 million people across Ontario and eight U.S. states that was going through their normal daily routine, blissfully unaware that August 14th, 2003 would become one of the more memorable days in recent history.

Although it wouldn't be until 4:13 p.m. before we were all plunged into the fifth largest blackout the world has seen so far, the problems that led to the widespread power outage began hours before, at shortly after noon. It all started with the failure of a computer program designed to monitor the transmission of electricity and warn of any problems. With that program down, a series of problems afterwards went undetected. A power plant in Eastlake, Ohio shut down, unexpectedly, at around 1:30 p.m.. Then, three overloaded power lines in northeast Ohio shorted out over the next 2 hours, due to overheating and sagging into overgrown tree branches. After that, it was a cascade effect of tripping circuit breakers and failing power grids, as the system tried to compensate for all the problems, and then finally collapsed. After it all, power grids in Ontario, Michigan, Ohio, Pennsylvania, New York, New Jersey, Maryland, Connecticut and Massachusetts had failed, leaving millions of people without power.

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As the lights went out, the first thoughts on many minds, given the post-9/11 world we lived in, was that this was some kind of terrorist attack. In Toronto, it may have been the calmest response to a possible attack that there ever has been.

I, fortunately, lived very close to my workplace, and although I dreaded the idea, I walked home to retrieve some necessities for my wife and I (along with our pet ferrets) so that we could go stay with her parents outside the city. However, the only thing I needed to dread was the two 30-story hikes (first up, then back down) waiting for me when I got to our building. The only chaos I encountered was at the few intersections along the way, and even that was being managed by some local teenagers, who had come out to direct traffic.

By the next morning, after undoubtedly enjoying the Perseid meteor shower under the clearest sky that's been seen in southern Ontario in decades, many people in Ontario found that their power had already been restored. There were limitations imposed on power usage over the next few days, while power plants were brought back online and the system was stabilized, but overall things on this side of the border got back to normal fairly quickly.

Inquiries and investigations since then have tracked down all the problems that were encountered that day. As a result, improvements have been made to the power grid. Better monitoring systems have been installed. Simulators are being installed for operators to test their responses to various crises. The power companies are far less forgiving of tree branches getting close to transmission lines. Biggest of all, though, is that enforceable reliability standards were adopted in the areas of the U.S. that were affected, so companies will now be fined if they don't meet those standards. There were no clear, enforceable standards in place in the U.S. in 2003 (although there were in Ontario).

Still, this doesn't mean that another blackout like the one in 2003 can't happen.

According to Bruce Campbell, who is the chief executive of the Independent Electricity System Operator (IESO), a crown corporation that manages Ontario's electricity system, although the probabilities of such a failure are down, it's still possible.

"Never say never," he said in an interview with the Toronto Star.

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So, it's unlikely that we'll experience another blackout, for the same reasons as the one in 2003. However, even with the upgrades, the system is still an aging collection of interconnected grids.

It could be an exceptionally powerful storm, an accident, or a deliberate act on someone's part that causes it, but it could happen. We only need to look at the extended blackouts caused by the Toronto floods in July for a very real example of how vulnerable the system can be.

(Photo courtesy: Reuters/Andrew Wallace)

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