Manitoba flood outlook warns of potential for moderate to major flooding

Residents of southern Manitoba may see flooding reminiscent of Spring 2009 this year, according to a report issued today by the province's Hydrologic Forecast Centre.

The report is warning of increased flooding potential this spring — possibly to the levels reached in 2009, but lower than was seen in 2011 — with moderate to major flooding possible in some areas. This is due to a combination of a delayed melt and the large amounts of snow that the prairie provinces have received this winter.

“This is Manitoba. We’re not taking anything for granted. It’s clear we’re going to be into flooding this spring,” said Steve Ashton, the Minister responsible for Emergency Measures in Manitoba, according to CBC News.

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Ashton went on to emphasize that exactly what flood conditions are experienced will be highly dependent on the weather — specifically how quickly the snow melts — but as of now, it is expected that there is an increased chance of flooding based on projections.

"We will be using every tool available to us in our flood management system," he said in the press conference. "No one is pressing any panic buttons."

The watershed for Lake Winnipeg covers over 980,000 square kilometres, including much of Alberta, Saskatchewan, North Dakota, Minnesota and northern Ontario — all areas that have received a lot of snow this winter.

According to reports, the 2009 flooding in Manitoba was the second worst flood on record since 1826. Around 2,800 residents were evacuated from their homes due to rising waters and ice jams, it resulted in numerous road closures, including shutting down Highway 75 for more than a month, and several people were killed or went missing during the flooding.

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As of their February 27th early outlook, the Hydrologic Forecast Centre was saying that the flood potential for this year was higher than it was for 2012, but significantly lower than it was in 2011, when the province experienced unprecedented flooding. They noted that there was "a risk of minor to moderate spring flood potential for the Red, the Souris, the Pembina and the Assiniboine Rivers, and in the Interlake."

However, just days after that forecast was issued, a storm moved in from the Pacific, drenching B.C.'s South Coast and then moving on into the prairies to deliver even more snow to Alberta, Saskatchewan and Manitoba. Also, just last week, the City of Regina reported that it has received a total of 196 cm of snow since the fall, which breaks the previous record set back in the winter of 1955-1956.

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