Boxing betting preview: How to bet on Jermell Charlo vs. Brian Castaño
It’s been almost impossible to separate Jermell and identical twin brother Jermall Charlo, both in terms of appearance and in terms of their boxing accomplishments.
But on Saturday, that may change.
Jermell Charlo is favored to defeat Brian Castaño on Saturday in San Antonio to become the first undisputed super welterweight champion in the four-belt era. At BetMGM, Charlo has been bet up to -300, while Castaño is at +225.
Holding all four belts not only would give Jermell a leg up on his brother, but it would make him only the third active undisputed champion in boxing, joining lightweight Teofimo Lopez and super lightweight Josh Taylor.
Castaño faces physical disadvantages that are going to be difficult for him to overcome. Charlo has a four-inch height advantage, a five-and-a-half-inch reach advantage and both a speed and a power edge.
Castaño, who is 17-0-1 with 12 knockouts, has the ability to win the fight if he can get underneath Charlo’s blistering jab and turn the fight into a high-volume affair at close distance.
Charlo can occasionally forget about his jab as he loads up on big shots, but that would be a nearly unforgivable sin in this fight. He has a great jab when he uses it, and he is facing an opponent who is highly vulnerable to it.
Castaño has a smart defense and rolls with punches, and he’s always in good condition, so he’s probably not at much risk of being stopped. Charlo by KO/TKO/Technical Decision/DQ is not an unreasonable price, but Castaño is a survivor.
The play is probably Charlo by decision. Charlo is 34-1 with 18 KOs and enters the fight coming off consecutive knockouts of Jorge Cota, Tony Harrison and Jeison Rosario.
He’ll have to open up a bit to finish Castaño if he manages to hurt him, which is no sure thing, and it’s unlikely Charlo would want to take that risk because he’s probably going to clearly outbox Castaño and be in control on the cards.
I think Charlo wins eight or nine rounds and will get a unanimous decision that isn’t too tight. I could play Charlo to win, and then I’m covered no matter the result, but there is a significant difference between laying -300 on him to win and taking the +125 on him to win by decision.
The risk I take if I play Charlo by decision is that I could lose even if I have the right side if Charlo finishes the fight. That’s frustrating when it occurs.
But I believe Castaño’s ability to roll with punches will make him less prone to a KO. Thus, I’ll take the plus money and bet $100 on Charlo by decision hoping to make a $125 profit.
On the undercard, I have a slight lean toward Rollie Romero in his lightweight title fight with Anthony Yigit. Romero is a -350 favorite, while Yigit is +250.
I’m going to stay away from it at that price, but if Romero drops under -300, I’d play him to win.
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