Your changeable Canada Day forecast may turn into a game of musical chairs

The pattern heading into your Canada Day long weekend might turn into a game of musical chairs as an active pattern appears to drape over the country.

Lots of moving parts in the atmosphere will bring warm weather to some and cooler weather to others. But will inclement weather disrupt your weekend plans? It depends on where each of those features ‘pauses’ on your big day.

Here’s a look at the long-range patterns that could affect conditions for your Canada Day weekend.

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Canada Day pattern outlook
Canada Day pattern outlook

With lots of vacations scheduled for the days before and after the holiday, folks are eagerly watching the forecast for clues about what they can expect through the end of the month.

Forecasters see a changeable pattern sweeping the country in the stretch leading up to Canada Day. Some areas will be a little warm while others will see below-seasonal conditions, but right now there are no signs of consistent extreme heat leading up to the big day.

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Canada Day outlook temp anomalies
Canada Day outlook temp anomalies

The biggest feature on the horizon is a trough aiming for eastern portions of Canada by the latter half of next week. This will bring a spell of cooler-than-seasonal temperatures to the region, potentially including Toronto, Ottawa, and Montreal.

Cooler weather will feel like a huge change from the heat dome we just experienced across Eastern Canada.

Bathurst, New Brunswick, saw its hottest-ever temperature on June 19 when the daytime reading soared to 37.6°C. This was also the province’s hottest June temperature on record.

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Don’t let next week's cooldown fool you, though. Temperatures are likely to rebound during the long holiday weekend.

Canada Day outlook jet stream
Canada Day outlook jet stream

Some wet weather is likely as this active pattern spreads from coast to coast. While complete washouts are unlikely, parts of the West, the Prairies, and northern Ontario may contend with some rain and thunderstorms heading into the holiday stretch.

It’s comparable to a game of musical chairs, the game where you walk around in a circle and sit in a chair when the music stops playing.

A changeable pattern like this is tough to pin down a week-and-a-half in advance. It depends on precisely where each feature ends up on Canada Day itself. Finer details like individual thunderstorms are impossible to see this far in advance.

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If you have any outdoor activities planned—whether it’s hiking, camping, or just hanging out at the cottage—pack enough clothes and supplies to deal with wet weather and periods of sunny, dry conditions alike. Always have a severe weather plan in place just in case strong storms loom on the horizon.

Make sure to check back throughout next week as forecasters continue to monitor your Canada Day weekend forecast.

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