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College football betting: No. 2 Ohio State getting 86% of the money vs. No. 5 Michigan

The final week of the college football regular season is now underway. Playoff aspirations and conference championship games are at play for the top teams, while bowl eligibility is a factor for many others across the college football landscape. With the extended weekend and an influx of football on the schedule, this is one of the best weekends of the year.

While it's depressing seeing the regular season wind down and knowing we won't see many of these teams in action for 9 months, there's still plenty of meat on this bone. What is the betting market at BetMGM telling us about this weekend's slate?

Major money on Ohio State

It's no surprise that Ohio State-Michigan is the most bet game on the slate for this weekend. It's the biggest game of the weekend and might just be the biggest game of the season. On the line for both teams is a spot in the Big Ten championship game and a path to a playoff appearance. Ohio State is currently an 8.5-point road favorite in Ann Arbor.

On the surface, action on this game seems pretty split. 56% of bets placed are backing the Buckeyes to cover the spread. While not an exact 50-50 split, it's pretty darn close. However, a closer look at the data paints a different picture.

COLUMBUS, OHIO - NOVEMBER 20: Garrett Wilson #5 of the Ohio State Buckeyes celebrates his touchdown with teammates during the first half of a game against the Michigan State Spartans at Ohio Stadium on November 20, 2021 in Columbus, Ohio. (Photo by Emilee Chinn/Getty Images)
Bettors like Ohio State to cover against Michigan. (Emilee Chinn/Getty Images)

Currently at BetMGM, 86% of the money bet on this game is backing Ohio State. The disproportionate split of betting tickets vs. betting handle suggests that bigger pockets and sharper bettors are siding with Ohio State in this one while Michigan might be more of a public play.

Jim Harbaugh has never beaten Ohio State in his time as head coach of the Wolverines. Ohio State has won eight straight in this rivalry with an average margin of victory north of two touchdowns. In the last two meetings between these schools, Ohio State has outscored Michigan 118-66.

Almost all of the action is backing Notre Dame

Currently ranked 6th, Notre Dame has been rolling in recent weeks. In their last three games, they've outscored opponents 117-9, highlighted by last week's 55-0 win over Georgia Tech. If everything breaks correctly for the Fighting Irish, they could find themselves with a legitimate case to make the playoff.

The opposite is true for Stanford. They've lost six straight games. In their last three games, Stanford has been outscored 128-32. Stanford has just three wins on the season and the program doesn't even have bowl eligibility in its sights.

This game has seen significant line movement, as the spread has moved from 17 to 20.5 points. Despite the drastic movement, 98% of the betting handle is on Notre Dame to cover as a 20.5-point favorite. It's obvious the books will be rooting for Stanford here.

Penn State now a road favorite

The "Michigan State is a fraud" community got to take a victory lap after last week's beating at the hands of Ohio State. Almost all season long, the analytical community and betting market have doubted how good Michigan State actually is.

Michigan State opened as a 1.5-point home favorite over Penn State. Now? Penn State is laying 1.5 points on the road in East Lansing. Currently, 71% of the betting handle is on Penn State to cover the spread.

Additionally, 71% of the money is on this game to go over the total of 52.5 points. Michigan State has the worst pass defense in the country, and in case you didn't realize that before last week, you're certainly aware of that deficiency now.

This also serves as a potential let down spot for Michigan State. Sure, it's still been a very successful season and the Spartans will play in a good bowl game, but their dreams of winning the Big Ten or appearing in the playoff are shot.

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