College football odds, betting: Let's back a surprise 3-0 team to continue its run in Week 4

·Betting analyst
·3 min read
LAWRENCE, KS - SEPTEMBER 02:  Head coach Lance Leipold of the Kansas Jayhawks stands with his team prior to a game against the Tennessee Tech Golden Eagles at David Booth Kansas Memorial Stadium on September 2, 2022 in Lawrence, Kansas. (Photo by Ed Zurga/Getty Images)
Coach Lance Leipold and the Kansas Jayhawks are on a roll to start the year. (Photo by Ed Zurga/Getty Images)

The Kansas Jayhawks are 3-0 for the first time since 2009 and are now 7-point favorites at home to Duke in Week 4. Jayhawks head coach Lance Leipold is revolutionizing a newly potent Kansas offense just like he did at Buffalo, which will allow the super-surging Jayhawks to cover this week against overmatched and overrated Duke.

The market didn't catch up to Leipold once his pieces were in place at Buffalo, where he finished 29-14 ATS before getting hired away by Kansas. At Buffalo, he showed that he knew how to ride a superstar talent to a big result with running back Jaret Patterson now in the NFL. Kansas QB Jalon Daniels is a versatile threat that just embarrassed the defenses of West Virginia and Houston.

Public perception: It’s the Jayhawks. Surely, this hot streak must be coming to an end. At least that’s how I interpret the line move with the opening spread dropping from 9 to 7. Last week I mentioned wanting to improve on favorites — finishing 1-1 — but I like just the single favorite in Kansas this week.

Why you should back the Jayhawks -7 in Week 4

It’s Duke. The Blue Devils are also on a 3-0 streak for the first time since Week 2 of last season and that included a 52-33 win over Kansas in late September. Daniels did not play in that matchup, and Duke proceeded to lose eight straight to close the season 3-9.

Last year, Duke went 0-5 SU and ATS on the road, losing by an average of 30 points while being outscored 210-59. But with a 3-0 record, this must be an improved team, right? Could be, yes, but as always you can’t just look at the scores or at the win-loss record and call it a day. The details matter.

The Blue Devils so far have defeated an FCS team, Northwestern and Temple — two offenses that ranked 113th and 126th last year with two defenses that ranked 113th and 86th in the FBS, respectively. In those five road losses last season, Duke’s rushing defense allowed 297 yards (7.2 yards per rush) in a 48-17 loss to Virginia Tech and 266 rushing yards (6.3 yards per rush) in a 45-7 loss to Wake Forest.

This early in the season, stats can definitely be misleading. Currently through two FBS games, Duke has a top-10 defense against the run. But those opponents, Temple and Northwestern, ranked 112th and 84th in rushing offense last year; this year it’s 124th and 77th, respectively.

The strength of schedules don’t compare. Daniels and this Kansas offense have faced tougher opponents in West Virginia and Houston. As it stands, the Jayhawks have a top-10 rushing unit with Daniels, Devin Neal, and Daniel Hishaw Jr. that’s seventh in yards per rush with 11 total rushing scores.

A problem we haven’t seen yet but could: Duke was bottom 10 in giveaways last year, and perhaps due to the competition faced that doesn’t appear to be an issue so far. Unfortunately for the Blue Devils, the Jayhawks are top 30 in takeaways, forcing two turnovers each in wins over the Cougars and Mountaineers. Duke is in a “prove it to me” situation.

Lay the points with the Jayhawks at home and watch this Big 12 team move to 4-0 for the first time since 2009