Competition will be fierce for Expo 2025 if Toronto says yes

[Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, right, says if Toronto city council decides to make a bid to host Expo 2025, the federal government will explore “next steps.” THE CANADIAN PRESS/Chris Young]

By Dene Moore

If Toronto city council decides to bid for Expo 2025 the city will be up against some heavy competition from cities such as Paris, London, Guangzhou and perhaps even Tehran.

But the Ontario metropolis has an excellent chance of success, says an Expo superfan and historian.

“I believe Toronto’s chances are really excellent given Canada’s track history with 1967 and 1986,” says Urso Chappell, curator of the online ExpoMuseum.com.

North America hasn’t hosted a world’s fair since Expo86 in Vancouver, Chappell points out, and the Bureau International des Expositions (BIE) — organizers of these events — have given every indication they would like to see a return to North America.

“Edmonton was the favourite for 2017 until the federal government under Harper refused to support it,” Chappell says of the abandoned bid by the Alberta capital. “Since 1986, there have been 11 world’s fairs all held in Asia, Europe and Australia.”

Toronto city council has been openly pondering a bid since the close of its successful PanAm Games last year.

With the window for submitting a bid expected to close by the end of the year, the subject was on the agenda of the mayor’s executive committee meeting on Tuesday.

Mayor John Tory says the city cannot go ahead without financial commitments from the federal and provincial governments.

Prime Minister Justin Trudeau has written to Tory to say his government is “prepared to explore next steps.”

Canada withdrew from the BIE under the previous Conservative government but Trudeau’s letter indicates the country could rejoin – one criteria of submitting a bid.

“We are committed to strengthening Canada’s place in the world as well as restoring our country’s reputation as an active and constructive partner of the international community,” Trudeau wrote in advance of Tuesday’s committee debate.

Ontario Premier Kathleen Wynne has also said she’s open to discussing provincial support for the event.

No city has yet submitted, which can be done a maximum of nine years and a minimum of six years before the opening date. Once the first bid is in — expected this year — would-be competitors have six months to submit their own.

“Right now, I know about discussions in China, the U.K., South Africa, Tehran, Paris, Osaka, Houston and San Francisco for 2025,” Chappell says.

Rotterdam appears to have abandoned plans for a bid and Chappell believes Tehran may be creating media buzz with talk of its own bid but may not follow through.

Dubai will be the first Middle Eastern city to host a world fair when gates open there in October 2020.

“Typically, most of these bids won’t come to fruition, and it’s believed that a North American bid city might make European and Asian cities re-think a bid since it’s clear that the BIE would like to have a world’s fair in North America for the first time since Vancouver’s Expo ‘86,” Chappell adds.

“I predict there will be three or four cities, in the end, bidding for Expo 2025 and a North American city would be favoured.”

The possibility is not without its detractors, who say the city cannot afford the six-month event and the spending it requires when there are many more pressing issues.

A feasibility study completed for the City of Toronto two years ago found that hosting Expo 2025 would cost between $5.4 billion and $13.5 billion — a net cost of between $1 billion and $3 billion when revenues and taxes are taken into account.

Toronto Coun. Kristyn Wong-Tam, one of the most ardent boosters of Toronto 2025, says the cost will be worth it but competition will be fierce.

“Don’t you think it’s going to be a walk in the park,” she says in a TedX Talk on the subject.