With the end of May a crucial deadline for farmers regarding the growing season, those in southern Manitoba will be faced with a tough decision with the threat of more rain and flooding through the early part of this week. Along with that comes the threat of severe thunderstorms, extending into northwestern Ontario. The potential stateside includes rotating storms, but being close to the international border, it can't be ruled out completely for the aforementioned regions Sunday and Monday. More on what to expect Sunday, Monday and the week ahead, below.
SUNDAY: RENEWED STORM RISK KEEPS FLOODING POTENTIAL ELEVATED AND PROMPTS TORNADO WATCH
Widespread instability and a trough will lead to a risk for thunderstorms across all three Prairie provinces during the day on Sunday. Conditions are favourable for these storms to turn severe across the eastern provinces, with Manitoba and northwestern Ontario facing the greatest risk.
The strongest storms that form could produce heavy rainfall, large hail, and strong wind gusts. Some rotation isn’t out of the question, especially near the international border, as the most favourable dynamics for severe weather will unfold stateside.
The threat for heavy rain in thunderstorms is particularly unwelcome news for southern Manitoba, which has experienced considerable spring flooding.
MONDAY: SEVERE WEATHER THREAT RETURNS, ROTATING STORMS POSSIBLE
Another, more potent, system will bring widespread rain and thunderstorms Monday afternoon through Tuesday morning. Similar regions will be at risk of seeing severe storms, though more so in northwestern Ontario and extreme southeastern Manitoba.
As with Sunday, there will be favourable dynamics near the international border for rotating storms, so they could creep into northwestern Ontario.
Other possible hazards with any storm that reaches severe criteria include large hail, heavy rain and strong wind gusts. For southern Manitoba, the threat of more downpours isn't needed for areas attempting to recover from flooding.
With this next low set to impact the eastern Prairies, this will result in more serious delays in spring planting, which is already a couple weeks behind schedule. May 31 is a critical deadline for many farmers to decide if they will attempt to move forward with the season or cash in on crop insurance.
LOOK AHEAD: COOLER AND UNSETTLED WEATHER ON THE WAY
Much cooler weather will spread across the region through the first half of this week, with temperatures sitting 5-10 degrees cooler than seasonal.
While the eastern Prairies are set to receive ample amounts of rainfall in the coming days, this will be a different story for western sections.
A disappointing forecast for southern Alberta farmers over the next week as the widespread rain will stay south of the border. With just scattered showers, most will miss out on the much-needed soaking rain.
Model data does show a rather favourable pattern for beneficial rain for the second week of June, but we have seen a lot of false hope turn into a dry forecast, so this is just something that we will watch closely for now.
Thumbnail courtesy of Tara McConnell, taken near Winnipeg, Man.
Be sure to check back for the latest weather updates across the Prairies.