Renewed thunderstorm threat with large hail risk on the Prairies this week
An unsettled pattern across the Prairies will stay put as we round out the final days of May. This means a daily threat for thunderstorms for the foreseeable future, with a severe risk in southeastern Saskatchewan and southern Manitoba.
People in these regions will want to be weather-aware and stay tuned for updates Monday and Tuesday. While the supercell risk is lower moving forward, tornado-warned storms battered parts of southern Saskatchewan on Saturday evening. It resulted in the first confirmed tornado in Canada for the 2023 season. Fortunately, the tornado was rated EF-0 and no damages or injuries were reported.
Visit The Weather Network's wildfire hub to keep up with the latest on the active start to wildfire season across Western Canada.
Lingering storm threat spills into the new workweek
The robust Rex block over Ontario and a series of troughs are to blame for the continuous stormy days on the southern Prairies, finishing up the weekend and beyond.
Summer-like heat will keep daytime highs in the upper 20s and low 30s through the long range, especially in southern Manitoba. The combination of heat and an active pattern will fuel the risk for storms in the forecast for several days, again primarily focused on southern Saskatchewan and Manitoba.
Storm risk on Monday
Areas: Alberta, southern Saskatchewan, and Manitoba.
Weather: There is a risk of severe thunderstorms across southern Alberta Monday afternoon, along with the threat of severe thunderstorms across the Red River Valley and southern Manitoba. The storms across Manitoba will have larger amounts of moisture to work with, so torrential downpours are also possible across the province.
Clusters of thunderstorms will develop in North Dakota and move north across the border into the evening hours. There will be more widespread storm energy available on Monday as compared to Sunday to fuel these storms as they move north. Larger hail could therefore be a feature with that touch more thunderstorm energy to work with.
The storm threat also expands into northwestern Ontario, with the Kenora and Rainy River Districts possibly seeing some thunderstorms reach severe limits.
Storm risk hangs on for Tuesday and Wednesday
Areas: Central Alberta, southern Saskatchewan, southern Manitoba, and northwestern Ontario
Weather: Another weak trough stalls across Alberta, creating a severe weather risk for regions southwest of Edmonton, towards the foothills. The second area of concern is southeastern Saskatchewan and Manitoba, where a couple of upper-level boundaries will trigger thunderstorm activity Tuesday afternoon. The risk of tornadoes remains low across the Prairies on Monday and Tuesday, but that does not mean the risk is zero.
The severe risk also once again extends into the Kenora and Rainy River Districts of northwestern Ontario, with the chance of storms reaching severe levels becoming slightly more likely than Monday's risk.
Through the rest of the week, we have high confidence that a daily thunderstorm risk will exist across the Prairies, with storms becoming locally severe in nature.
Analysis
Disturbances embedded in a westerly flow will continue to trigger more thunderstorms on Monday and Tuesday.
As the upper level pattern evolves by Wednesday, the Prairies are put in an unstable southerly flow on the backside of a strong high pressure ridge across northwestern Ontario. This means there will be a daily thunderstorm risk across the region, so check back often for severe and stormy weather updates.
Prepare
Stay alert and monitor the forecast for updates. Have a plan and a place to head indoors if the weather changes.
[Watches](https://www.theweathernetwork.com/en/news/science/explainers/how-severe-weather-is-communicated-in-canada) mean conditions are favourable for the development of severe thunderstorms.
[Warnings](https://www.theweathernetwork.com/en/news/science/explainers/how-severe-weather-is-communicated-in-canada) mean they are imminent or occurring in your area.
Stay tuned to The Weather Network for more forecast updates on the Prairies.
