What could Donald Trump’s second presidency mean for Kentucky?

Kentuckians voted overwhelmingly for Donald Trump for the third time in eight years.

But it was the highly engaged battleground states of Georgia, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and North Carolina that are sending him back to the White House for a second term.

“This will truly be the golden age of America,” Trump said at his victory party early Wednesday morning.

The former and now-future president clashed dramatically with Vice President Kamala Harris on policy issues from taxes to healthcare and immigration.

Trump made major promises including the implementation of strict immigration policies, cutting taxes and embracing an “America First” approach to problems foreign and domestic.

It’s difficult to gauge the unpredictability of such a singular figure in American politics. But based on what he said over the last year on the campaign trail, here’s what a second Trump term will likely mean for Kentucky:

Taxes

One of the first issues Trump is likely to act on is pushing for a full extension of his expiring Tax Cut & Jobs Act, which he signed into law in 2017.

The former and future president wants an extension of all of his tax cuts and to go further by attempting to slash taxes on tips and Social Security, which could be a heavier lift in a divided Congress.

With roughly a third of Kentucky households having a family member receiving Social Security, a tax cut on the entitlement could prove to be a significant windfall for the elderly population.

But it could spark a fight among deficit hawks who have shown a preference for coupling such relief with cuts to other government programs.

Rep. Thomas Massie co-sponsored a bill which would exempt tips from both income and payroll taxes, which could provide an olive branch to Trump. But the proposal faces challenges due to its estimated cost of $150 to $250 billion over ten years.

On the face of it Trump’s tax individual cuts should benefit the majority of Kentucky households that make less than $400,000 a year.

But some analysts say when adding Trump’s tariff plan to the mix, his cuts actually turn out to be a net tax increase.

“Under the Trump proposals, the middle fifth of Americans would see a tax increase of 2.1 percent of their income while the poorest fifth would see a hike of 4.8 percent. The richest 1 percent would receive an average tax cut equal to 1.2 percent of their income,” wrote Jon Whiten, deputy director of the Institute on Taxation and Economic Policy.

Bourbon Tariffs

Regarding those tariffs — no Kentucky industry would be impacted more than bourbon producers.

Trump’s unorthodox trade posture, in which he levied significant tariffs on foreign steel and aluminum during his presidency, ended up ensnaring American whiskey, a $9 billion industry in Kentucky. As a candidate he’s threatened even more, musing that the word “tariff” is his favorite in the language.

But Trump will only have a few months to figure out a way to negotiate out of a dramatic tariff that is dangling over the commonwealth’s nearly 100 bourbon producers.

Following Trump’s first term, the Biden administration worked with the European Union to suspend a 25% European Union tariff on American whiskey. But that suspension faces a cliff at the end of March 2025.

If the U.S. government doesn’t negotiate a deal with the EU, a 50% tariff is scheduled to hit American whiskey producers.

Chris Swonger, the president of the Distilled Spirits Council in Washington, which represents numerous Kentucky distilleries, said he would work with the Trump administration to achieve a favorable outcome for domestic producers.

“If we get caught back up in a trade dispute…it can have a dramatic impact on American whiskey exports, and we don’t want to do that,” Swonger said.

During the four years of the previous 25% tariff, American whiskey exports declined by 30%, according to Swonger. Until the threat of the 50% tariff is resolved, Kentucky distillers are unlikely to invest in attempting to bring their product to the European Union.

A Kiplinger study found that Kentucky would be the state hit hardest by Trump’s proposed tariffs.

“Kentucky would bear the largest total tariff payment, with tariff payments totaling nearly 5% of its state GDP,” according to the Kiplinger survey.

Trump has been dismissive of critiques, saying his tariffs will lure back manufacturing jobs to the U.S. and reduce the domestic trade deficit with China. But critics say it will hurt those at the lowest income rung.

“This will be regressive, hitting low-income residents of Kentucky hardest,” according to Lindsay Owens, executive director of Groundwork Collaborative and Groundwork Action, an economic think tank in Washington.

Healthcare

For the approximately 75,000 Kentuckians who get their healthcare through the Affordable Care Act, a good amount of money is at stake in 2025 when Trump will likely be pressured by congressional Republicans to allow Obamacare tax credits to expire.

It’ll be a high stakes battle over access to a program Republicans have been obsessed with repealing for more than a decade.

Without those Obamacare tax credits, thousands of Kentuckians may no longer be able to afford healthcare through the federal exchange.

“Four million people wouldn’t be able to afford it and become uninsured,” said Chris Jennings, a private health care consultant who advised former Presidents Obama and Clinton. “If it’s not extended, people would see their marketplace premiums and overall cost-sharing increase.”

Jennings believes Trump would likely sacrifice the healthcare subsidies in order to help pay for his tax cuts, and he’ll likely have a helping hand with a new Republican Senate.

“We’ve heard ... Mitch McConnell say they don’t want to make these tax credits permanent,” added Democratic Rep. Lauren Underwood on Amazon Prime’s Election Night.

Immigration

Of all the policies Trump stumped on, immigration was the issue he remained most passionate about, even to the chagrin of some of his advisers.

It’s also the policy his detractors are most fearful he’ll implement.

There are a litany of promises. Finishing the construction of a border wall and limiting immigration from countries he deems a security risk are among them. The most drastic is his idea to unleash a mass deportation force across the country

While there’s no official count of the number of immigrants in the country illegally, the idea has sent a chill through most immigrant communities, regardless of their status.

According to the most recent U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services numbers, there are 3,004 people in Kentucky with temporary immigration status, more commonly known as TPS holders.

While the architecture of Trump’s immigration overhaul is still in question, advocates hope they can convince the incoming president to better understand their situations and make distinctions.

“Protecting family unity is a key concern, and many TPS holders have built families and businesses in the U.S,” said Yanira Arias, a TPS holder and activist who works with immigrants in Kentucky.

“The greatest need is a legislative reform that enables those under TPS for several years to apply for permanent residence. Neither party included that pressing need in its platform. For TPS holders, the support and actions of local and state officials in places like Kentucky will be critical.”