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How do COVID-19 cases compare among Democrat- or Republican-led states? Study finds out

States with Democrats in power have controlled the spread of the coronavirus better than their Republican counterparts, according to a new study.

Lloyd Chambless, a biostatistics professor at the University of North Carolina Gillings School of Global Public Health, found a link between which party controls the governor’s office and the legislature in a given state and how many COVID-19 cases have been reported in that area since the onset of the coronavirus pandemic.

Though careful to note it wasn’t a causal relationship, the professor emeritus said there was an association.

“The COVID-19 cases per capita in states governed by a Democratic governor and legislature have been significantly lower than the rates in states with a Republican governor and legislature,” Chambless said in a summary of his findings.

The study — titled “Why do per capita COVID-19 Case Rates Differ Between U.S. States?” — has been submitted to an academic journal but has not been peer reviewed yet. It was posted Tuesday to the online health sciences website medRxiv.

Chambless conducted the study by analyzing the cumulative per capita COVID-19 case rate across all 50 U.S. states. The per capita case rate is the number of coronavirus cases per 100,000, a metric experts consider better suited to comparing case numbers across differing population sizes.

He divided the states into three categories: those with a Republican-controlled legislature and governor, those with a Democratic-controlled legislature and governor, and those with some combination thereof. Chambless was careful to note “the unit of analysis is states, not individuals.”

According to his findings, there are 21 states with Republicans in power, 15 with Democrats in power and 14 with a “mixed governance.”

North Carolina, which has a Democratic governor and a Republican-controlled legislature, fell into the third category.

Chambless also took into account each state’s demographic and socioeconomic differences — including race and ethnicity, age, median income, poverty level, education level and population density. The virus has disproportionately impacted Black and brown communities, the elderly and those without adequate access to healthcare, according to public health experts.

While Chambless found there was an association there, the summary states “the effects of political party governance remain even after controlling for those factors.”

The chart shows the number of observed cases in each U.S. state compared to the predicted number of cases based on its demographic and socio-economic characteristics. UNC Gillings School of Public Health Professor Emeritus Lloyd Chambless found states higher above the line had a greater COVID-19 case rate than expected. States below the line had a lower rate than predicted.

According to the study, Democratic states have a greater population density, a higher percentage of Hispanic residents, a larger percentage of urban areas and a greater median income. Republican states, meanwhile, have a lower median age, a smaller percentage of residents with a bachelor’s degree, a higher rate of uninsured residents, and a higher percentage of people living in poverty.

Using data from the beginning of the pandemic through Oct. 8 and adjusting for those socioeconomic and demographic factors, Chambless determined the per capita case rate for Democratic states was 2,155 compared to Republican’s 2,738 — a difference of more than 500 cases.

Mixed governments had a cumulative case rate of 2,269, according to the study.

That means the COVID-19 case rates for Democratic-led states and states led by both Republicans and Democrats were between 79% and 83% that of Republican-led states, according to the summary.

Chambless said there may be any number of reasons case rates vary in states with different political leadership, including “the attitudes of residents” and how willing they are to wear masks or practice social distancing.

“An additional possible explanation is the difference in public health policies of state governments, such as mask mandates, closing of bars, and support for contact tracing,” the summary states.