Croucher likes Addison, Johnston as OROY longshots
Jay Croucher, Matthew Berry and Connor Rogers take an early look at the Offensive Rookie of the Year betting market and eye their favorite longshots including Jordan Addison and Quentin Johnston and more.
CONNOR ROGERS: No way to close out this show without taking an early peek at the Offensive Rookie of the Year Odds as we have them up here. What value jumps out to you? Because obviously, Bijan, a plus 300, I know I think it opened up plus 400. So we've already seen movement there. But is there any value on this board right now?
JAY CROUCHER: I mean, I think if I was looking at longer shots, the two guys that I would look at would be Jordan Addison at plus 1700s and then Quentin Johnston at plus 2000 just because they have a chance to be top two wide receiver on potentially a late passing offense. So those would be the two with longest shots. But I think this conversation starts with, how does Bijan lose? Like how does he lose? But talking about--
CONNOR ROGERS: Injury. Wait.
JAY CROUCHER: --a potential top five fantasy pick, that's insane for a rookie running back. So I think-- I mean, you don't want to top that much money for that long on plus 300, but I think that's maybe a bit of value. The other thing with this market to remember, and what I always think about, is that Justin Herbert beat Justin Jefferson for this award. Despite Jefferson, relative to position just being better than Herbert was, but tie break always goes to the quarterback if it's close just because the quarterback means more. So Bryce Young at plus 475, I think, is kind of interesting as well. And I'd have him over Stroud because of Frank Reich.
MATTHEW BERRY: Yeah. I was going to say, what about Anthony Richardson at plus 900? Here's my argument. Because again, they say, you know what, we're going to do Lamar Jackson rookie year with you. You're going to run the ball 20 times, that kind of thing. Between him and Jonathan Taylor, we're going to-- the passes won't be a lot, it'll be quick bubble screens to Michael Pittman as you develop. But here's the Colts have pretty decent defense. They have other skill players around them. The offensive line jells. You could see Richardson have a Lamar Jackson-like rookie year where they sort of grind out wins in a division that doesn't scare you. I know Jacksonville is on the rise and we expect Tennessee to be there. But it's not like a division where you're like, there's no way the Colts win this division. So Anthony Richardson starts the whole game, the whole year, and they win that division with 10 or 11 wins because he just sort of grinds it out.
JAY CROUCHER: Yup. Absolutely. And the thing to remember is that this time last year or heading into last season, the Colts were like minus 130 to win the AFC South. And we forget about that because they had such a bad year. But most of that supporting cast is still there. I think the defense is still good. You've still got Pittman, you've still got Tyler, you've still got Quenton Nelson on the offensive line. So I like that. The one thing I would do there is I would wait until we get closer to camp and just make sure that Gardner Minshew isn't the starting quarterback. Because if Richardson, it's going to be such an amazing sign for Richardson and also for his Offensive Rookie of the Year chances. If he's able to win that starting job from Gardner Minshew, that will tell us something about his readiness. Because the easy thing is just the start Minshew.
MATTHEW BERRY: I agree. But if he gets that job, do the odds from plus 900 suddenly then come down?
JAY CROUCHER: Get a run to the BetMGM app quickly.
MATTHEW BERRY: There you go and use promo code Berry.
JAY CROUCHER: Yeah.