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Debating the Trump-Biden debates: Will they matter this time?

Exactly 60 years ago this week, a senator and another former vice president launched a new American political tradition: presidential candidate debates. Next week, the first of this cycle’s three debates is scheduled between President Donald Trump and former vice president Joe Biden.

We say scheduled because this isn’t the proclamation business. In politics, you never know what can happen, and in 2020, that applies to most everything. A number of important Democrats, most prominently House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, have urged Biden to drop out of this cycle’s scheduled debates, beginning next Tuesday in Cleveland.

The alleged reason is because Trump is so dishonest that he would fill the air with lies and misstatements and soil the process. There would be some political damage if Biden did that, of course. And he would miss the opportunity to criticize Trump’s Supreme Court nominee.

Biden has said he’s very much looking forward to debating the president. But such public urgings would give him some cover if he chooses to dodge the debates.

Biden actually did well in the vice presidential debates of 2008 against Sarah Palin and 2012 against Paul Ryan. No, Trump’s dishonesty is not the real problem. Democrats’ real concern should be that the 77-year-old political veteran’s mental acuity is not what it was eight and 12 years ago.

Recently, during an ostensible interview, he appeared to read answers off a teleprompter. Now, using a teleprompter is not a problem — for speeches. These devices have been around since the 1952 campaign and Biden’s political partner, former President Barack Obama, used a pair all the time, and Trump regularly uses teleprompters during rallies as well.

But being fed answers during a live interview would be a sure sign of weakness. Without a script, Biden’s thoughts can appear to wander. He needed notes to explain why he selected Kamala Harris as his running mate. In Tampa last week, with an open notebook in front of him, Biden seemed to get lost:

“Cause if you could take care, if you were a quartermaster, you can sure in hell take care running a, you know, a department store, uh, thing, you know, where in the second floor of the ladies’ department or whatever. You know what I mean?”

Biden performed fine in an ensuing CNN town hall, though he could have fallen into a diabetic coma given the sweet, soft questions he got. Politico called it “an affable reunion of old acquaintances” compared to the “icy grilling” of Trump during ABC’s town hall.

But a casual town hall with friendly Anderson Cooper is not what’s coming next week. Biden and Trump will face the honestly tough, professional inquiries of Fox News’ Chris Wallace. Trump has already done a Sunday show with Wallace. So, he knows what to expect. Biden did some primary debates last winter. He’s invited reporters to attend a reading of an announcement, but he’s often walked offstage without taking any questions.

And this cycle, he’s not done much media at all beyond local TV interviews where he hasn’t faced bare-knuckle questions about his vast pie-in-the-sky spending plans, his $3 trillion-plus tax proposals or his son’s financial dealings in China. Hillary Clinton made the same media mistake four years ago.

If Trump can use a hostile media to his advantage, you’d think an agile Biden could take advantage of his sympathizers in that field.

But can Biden handle the pressures of a fast-paced, two-hour national broadcast face-to-face with a hard-nosed host and a blustery opponent?

Trump is not home-free, however. His campaign spokesman claims the incumbent is doing nothing special for the political showdown, just practicing by being a real president every day. Even Trump’s harshest critics could never accuse him of having self-doubts.

Recent incumbent presidents including Obama and George W. Bush have actually performed poorly in opening debates, perhaps as a result of overconfidence and not being so bluntly challenged in the Oval Office. Obviously, they recovered to win reelection as most incumbents do.

The 2020 reality may be that with greatly increased early voting and preset partisanship in place, these debates could be less impactful.

Truth is, while fears of a disastrous gaffe are real going in, over the years, they’ve only proved truly damaging if the misstep fed an existing voter impression. In a 1976 debate, Gerald Ford, for instance, falsely proclaimed that Poland was not within the Communist sphere of influence. In 1984, Democrats sought to make Ronald Reagan’s age an issue. He was 73 then, the oldest presidential nominee and a year younger than Trump today.

Reagan had not appeared sharp, but he uttered his historic (and rehearsed) zinger that he would not hold Walter Mondale’s youth and inexperience against him. Mondale, a former senator and vice president who was 56 at the time, laughed with the crowd.

But Mondale told me later that he knew at that moment he had lost the election. Indeed, Mondale lost 49 states, an incumbent’s largest landslide win since 1936. Mondale took only his home Minnesota and that by less than 4,000 votes.

It might seem counterintuitive to them, but Trump’s campaign people would be wise in this next week to talk up Biden’s debate experience and skills, his decades speaking in the Senate and his eight years on the world stage. Modern politics is a lot about acting performance. They want the expectations bar to be as high as possible for Biden.

Otherwise, given today’s creeping impression of a slow Biden, he could mumble less incoherently and come out fine. And if in fact, some Biden statements do sound fuzzy, no bullying. That would generate sympathy and play on a negative image of Trump. Much of the public is prepared now to look for Biden blather. “I’m not sure I understood what the former vice president was saying, but here’s what my administration has done and intends to do.”

What’s unusual about this election run-up is that so much of the electorate says it has already made up its mind and won’t be changing. Biden supporters are voting against Trump. The president’s supporters are voting for him. Of course, voters have misled pollsters before. So as in 2016, you never know what can happen. But we already said that.