Decline in N.L. births a sign of weakening economic confidence
A steady increase in the number of births recorded by Newfoundland and Labrador's largest health authority over the past three years appears to have come to an end.
And it's likely another sign of the province's weakening economy, says Rob Greenwood of the Memorial University's Harris Centre.
Eastern Health reports that 676 babies were born in the first quarter of 2015.
At that rate, the health authority is on pace to record just over 2,700 births this year, or nearly 350 fewer than last year.
Confidence was soaring
Greenwood believes it's a reflection of the uncertainty that is spreading from job cuts in the public sector, and a painful downturn in the oil and gas and mining industries.
He said it all began when then premier Kathy Dunderdale announced job cuts a few years ago. The news came as a shock to a province that had enjoyed record economic growth and spending for nearly a decade.
The situation intensified following the shutdown of the iron ore mine in Wabush in early 2014, and continued with a dramatic decline in oil prices that began last summer.
The downturn has severely pinched off the flow of revenues into government coffers, with the provincial government forecasting deficits for the next five years.
The consequence? The soaring confidence that characterized so much of the province is now being shunted aside and replaced by uncertainty and hesitation, says Greenwood.
"I think for people, psychologically, planning a family ... well there's a nine-month lag at least, it takes a while for that to play out in society," he said.
The same trend is developing in the region covered by Western Health, where first-quarter results point to a decline in births.
The numbers for Central Health and Labrador Grenfell Health, however, indicates a smaller decline in births.
The apparent slowdown in births coincides with the release last month of a new population growth strategy by Premier Paul Davis.
Greenwood said economic confidence and affordable childcare are two of the most important factors in growing a population.
Right now, he said, both those factors are missing in Newfoundland and Labrador.
"It's the most difficult challenge I could imagine," Greenwood said of the idea of growing the population.
Newfoundland and Labrador has the lowest fertility rate and birth rate in the country, and Greenwood believes the increase in births at Eastern Health in recent years was a reflection of the upbeat mood in the province.
"It's has been a really good place to live, for the most part, over the last decade," he said.
