Republican incumbent Steve Daines fends off former Gov. Steve Bullock to hold US Senate seat in Montana
The incumbent Republican Sen. Steve Daines of Montana defeated the state's Democratic former Gov. Steve Bullock in a highly competitive US Senate race, according to Decision Desk HQ.
Daines enjoyed a 6-percentage-point advantage over Bullock when Insider and DDHQ called the race with more than 85% of the state's votes counted.
Montana has been reliably Republican at the presidential level but has elected several Democrats statewide, including Bullock, in recent years.
See the live coverage and full results from the US Senate elections.
The Democratic former Gov. Steve Bullock of Montana failed to unseat the state's incumbent Republican Sen. Steve Daines despite forcing a highly competitive race in the reliably red state, according to Decision Desk HQ.
The candidates
Bullock, an outgoing two-term governor and former Montana attorney general, announced he would run for US Senate after a short-lived 2020 presidential run.
As governor, Bullock was best known for expanding Medicaid in the state, working to protect public lands, and successfully banning dark money — campaign funds from undisclosed sources — from Montana state elections.
Daines, a businessman and former US House representative for Montana's at-large congressional district, was first elected to the seat in 2014.
He serves on the Senate Finance and Appropriations committees and has focused resources on protecting public lands — an important bipartisan issue in the state — and delivering resources to Montana's Native American communities.
Daines hasn't stirred up too much controversy during his time in the US Senate but still faced a competitive reelection battle.
Bullock posted eye-popping fundraising numbers, having broken a quarterly fundraising record for Senate races in Montana after bringing in $7.7 million in the second quarter of this year and a stunning $26.9 million in the third quarter.
The stakes
In addition to winning back the White House, Democrats hoped to regain control of the Senate for the first time since 2015 in Tuesday's election.
For years, Montana has been reliably Republican at the presidential level but has elected several Democrats statewide.
The Democrat Jon Tester has represented Montana's other US Senate seat since 2007. And Bullock had a strong track record of winning crossover votes. He was first elected to the governor's office in 2012 as Sen. Mitt Romney won the state by over 13 points, and was reelected in 2016 as President Donald Trump carried the state by over 20 points.
To be sure, the dynamics of federal and state-level races are often quite different, and unseating an incumbent senator is a far more complicated task than winning an open gubernatorial race, for example.
But in the context of Montana, Bullock's strong electoral record, solid approval ratings, and strong name recognition made him a formidable opponent against Daines.
There were several other key races in Montana bringing national attention to the state on Election Day, including the open governor's race between GOP Rep. Greg Gianforte and Lt. Gov. Mike Cooney and the open US House race between the Democrat Kathleen Williams and the Republican State Auditor Matt Rosendale.
See Insider's full guide to the race for the US Senate here
The money race
Bullock both significantly outraised and outspent Daines but had less cash on hand entering the final days of the election, data from the Center for Responsive Politics and the Federal Election Commission showed.
This cycle, Bullock raised $43.3 million, spent $39.3 million, and had $4 million in cash on hand, while Daines had raised $25.7 million, spent $25.4 million, and had $1.7 million in cash on hand.
In 2020's third fundraising quarter, Bullock brought in an eye-popping $26.9 million haul compared with $11.5 million for Daines, Roll Call reported.
What the polls said
The surveys of the race in the lead-up to Election Day indicated a close contest between Daines and Bullock.
A New York Times and Siena College poll conducted October 18-20 found Daines leading Bullock by 3 points, 49% to 46%, among likely voters.
Two more recent surveys conducted by Public Policy Polling and Montana State University at Billings both yielded the same topline result, finding Bullock leading Daines by 1 point, 48% to 47%, among all voters and likely Montana voters, respectively.
Two previous polls fielded in mid-October found narrow leads for Daines. An NBC Montana/Strategies 360 on October 15-20 found Daines leading Bullock by 1 point, 48% to 47%, among likely voters.
A poll conducted by RMG Research on October 15-18 found Daines leading Bullock by 2 points, 49% to 47% among likely voters.
See the live coverage and full results from the US presidential election.
What the experts said
The Cook Political Report and Inside Elections rated the race as a "toss-up," while Sabato's Crystal Ball at the University of Virginia Center for Politics rated the race "leans Republican."
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