Democrats could easily lose the White House and Senate next year

Joe Biden
President Joe Biden delivers remarks about his administration's approach to artificial intelligence during an event in the East Room of the White House on October 30, 2023, in Washington, DC.Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images
  • Polling increasingly shows Biden and the Democratic Party may face difficulties next election.

  • Biden recently fell behind Trump in an NBC News poll for the first time this race.

  • The party's chances of maintaining the majority in the Senate are dwindling, too.

With less than a year to go until the 2024 elections, it's increasingly looking like the electoral season will be an uphill battle for the Democratic Party.

For starters, President Joe Biden, the face of the party and who's running for reelection, turned 81 years old on Monday. If re-elected, he'll be 82 years old when his second term begins and 86 years old at its end, making him the oldest serving president by just under a decade.

And while he's downplayed the role his advanced age could have on his ability to lead, polling's revealed that more than three-fourths of US adults think he's simply too old for another four years in the White House.

As Politico recently reported, Biden's age has already begun to affect how he operates. The publication said that some of those around the president have advocated for him to walk shorter distances and ditch his dress shoes for more comfortable ones, sometimes sneakers, to lower the risk of him falling.

He's also begun using Air Force One's shorter staircase when exiting the plane just months after he tripped and fell over a sandbag at a US Air Force Academy graduation in July.

Biden's age, along with how voters feel about his handling of the ongoing crisis in the Middle East, has led him to fall behind former President Donald Trump in NBC News' polls for the first time, a problem that could be exacerbated among younger voters.

NBC News isn't the only pollster to show Biden trailing. A poll released in early November by the New York Times and Siena College also showed Trump leading the Democratic president in five of six battleground states.

Biden will also likely be facing off against more than just Trump in the upcoming presidential election after Robert F. Kennedy Jr split from the Democratic Party in early October after failing to gain enough support in early polls. Kennedy's now running as an independent, where there's a chance he could siphon off much-needed Democratic voters from Biden who feel maligned by the current president.

Trouble's brewing in the Senate

As a result of successful midterm elections in 2022, the Democratic Party currently holds a 51-seat majority (comprised of Democrats and Democratic-caucusing independents) in the Senate.

That majority can — and very likely will — switch hands in 2024, especially after Sen. Joe Manchin announced earlier in the month that he's not running for reelection.

For the Democratic Party to hold on to the majority, it'll likely have to hold onto the seats it currently has in increasingly red states like West Virginia, Ohio, and Montana.

If the Democratic Party loses control of the Senate, it makes it much more difficult for Biden or any Democratic president to appoint a new justice to the Supreme Court if any vacancies arise.

All may not be lost for Democrats

Despite the roadblocks ahead for Biden and the Democratic Party in 2024, success isn't necessarily guaranteed for the Republican Party, either.

Biden's already proven he can defeat Trump in a presidential election by highlighting the former president's track record in the White House. If he can regain the trust and support of his 2020 electorate, especially the young voters who voted for him in droves but hate how he's handled the conflict in the Middle East, he's got more than a fair shot at winning reelection.

Additionally, Trump, the party's leading candidate by a wide margin, is currently fighting a mountain of legal battles after getting charged with 91 felonies by grand juries across the country throughout 2023.

Despite his large lead, much of his 2024 campaign schedule will be hindered by repeated court appearances, which will prohibit him from being able to hold nearly as many rallies as he has in previous elections.

And if he's found guilty — especially if he's sent to prison — there's a chance that support for the embattled former president could wane despite him technically being able to run for office and lead the country behind bars.

The Supreme Court's decision in 2022 to overturn decades of precedent for abortion access has also led to Democratic voters turning out in record numbers, especially when abortion-related referendums are on the ballot like in Ohio and Kansas.

If that trend persists in the 2024 election, Biden may hypothetically be able to ride that surge of support to reelection.

Read the original article on Business Insider