Is Detection Technology Oyj's (HEL:DETEC) 104% Share Price Increase Well Justified?

The most you can lose on any stock (assuming you don't use leverage) is 100% of your money. But in contrast you can make much more than 100% if the company does well. For instance the Detection Technology Oyj (HEL:DETEC) share price is 104% higher than it was three years ago. How nice for those who held the stock! It's also good to see the share price up 24% over the last quarter.

See our latest analysis for Detection Technology Oyj

In his essay The Superinvestors of Graham-and-Doddsville Warren Buffett described how share prices do not always rationally reflect the value of a business. One flawed but reasonable way to assess how sentiment around a company has changed is to compare the earnings per share (EPS) with the share price.

Detection Technology Oyj was able to grow its EPS at 38% per year over three years, sending the share price higher. This EPS growth is higher than the 27% average annual increase in the share price. Therefore, it seems the market has moderated its expectations for growth, somewhat.

The image below shows how EPS has tracked over time (if you click on the image you can see greater detail).

HLSE:DETEC Past and Future Earnings, January 27th 2020
HLSE:DETEC Past and Future Earnings, January 27th 2020

We know that Detection Technology Oyj has improved its bottom line over the last three years, but what does the future have in store? It might be well worthwhile taking a look at our free report on how its financial position has changed over time.

What About Dividends?

When looking at investment returns, it is important to consider the difference between total shareholder return (TSR) and share price return. The TSR is a return calculation that accounts for the value of cash dividends (assuming that any dividend received was reinvested) and the calculated value of any discounted capital raisings and spin-offs. It's fair to say that the TSR gives a more complete picture for stocks that pay a dividend. As it happens, Detection Technology Oyj's TSR for the last 3 years was 116%, which exceeds the share price return mentioned earlier. The dividends paid by the company have thusly boosted the total shareholder return.

A Different Perspective

Pleasingly, Detection Technology Oyj's total shareholder return last year was 69%. That includes the value of the dividend. So this year's TSR was actually better than the three-year TSR (annualized) of 29%. The improving returns to shareholders suggests the stock is becoming more popular with time. While it is well worth considering the different impacts that market conditions can have on the share price, there are other factors that are even more important. Like risks, for instance. Every company has them, and we've spotted 3 warning signs for Detection Technology Oyj (of which 1 makes us a bit uncomfortable!) you should know about.

We will like Detection Technology Oyj better if we see some big insider buys. While we wait, check out this free list of growing companies with considerable, recent, insider buying.

Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on FI exchanges.

If you spot an error that warrants correction, please contact the editor at editorial-team@simplywallst.com. This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. Simply Wall St has no position in the stocks mentioned.

We aim to bring you long-term focused research analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Thank you for reading.