Tropical system could become ‘formidable’ storm. The latest & what South MS should know

An area of showers and thunderstorms in the Caribbean Sea could soon become another rare November hurricane, forecasters said, but its path is still unclear.

The disturbance is in the central and western Caribbean and will probably become a tropical depression this week, the National Hurricane Center said. It will meander over the western Caribbean this weekend then move northwest early next week.

Forecasters increased its chances of forming on Wednesday and now say it has a 90 percent chance of strengthening within two days.

Storms so late in the season are rare. But the disturbance could become “a formidable November hurricane,” Florida meteorologist Michael Lowry wrote in a newsletter. It would follow Hurricane Rafael, which pounded through the Caribbean last week and later fell apart in the Gulf of Mexico.

The disturbance will be named Sara if it strengthens.

Meteorologists said Wednesday the storm would probably turn into the Gulf of Mexico toward Florida, and would likely not impact the central Gulf Coast.

But the storm’s final path will be unclear until it strengthens and forms a center. The National Hurricane Center said an Air Force Hurricane Hunter plane would fly into the disturbance on Wednesday.

“The possibilities are wide – from a hurricane to storm remnants anywhere from South Florida to the Big Bend – so we’ll need to stay patient and check back on the forecast,” Lowry said in a Wednesday newsletter.

The Caribbean is producing storms this deep in hurricane season because the ocean is still warm, said The Weather Channel meteorologist Jim Cantore.

“The lack of strong cold fronts and significant shear in the east has kept this part of the season going, and this next threat will be no different,” Cantore wrote on social media.

Hurricane season ends Nov. 30.

The disturbance poses no immediate threat to South Mississippi. The National Weather Service in Slidell said on Tuesday that it was “way too early” to know where the system will go or how strong it will get.

It asked residents of Louisiana and the Mississippi Coast to keep checking the forecast.

The storm would be the 18th named system this season in the Atlantic. It will probably become the 12th hurricane and ninth named system in the Gulf, according to Louisiana State Climatologist Jay Grimes.