Donald Trump is no longer 'an aberration or an accident': Decisive, controversial win showcases a shift in politics that will impact the world, experts say

Researchers and experts in the areas of political science and international relations were left “shocked” and “somewhat surprised” following what some of them described as a “lousy evening” in the United States as Donald Trump cleared the 270 electoral votes needed to clinch the presidency.

Trump bagged early wins in North Carolina and Georgia, however, his path was solidified once he took the campaign's most sought after 19 electoral college votes in Pennsylvania and ultimately coloured the Democrat's critical "blue wall" states red with wins later on. Additionally, Republicans gained control of the Senate and continue to be in the lead against Kamala Harris’ Democrats to win the House.

Canadian experts waking up to a Donald Trump victory in the 2024 U.S. Presidential Election were slightly taken aback with Trump overperforming and Harris underdelivering on Nov. 5.

“I was somewhat surprised by the outcome, although all along we knew it would be close,” University of Toronto political science expert Larry LeDuc told Yahoo News Canada over email.

Sharing a similar reaction were University of Carleton international affairs specialist Stephen Saideman and foreign policy researcher Brian Schmidt who had been watching the events unfold closely.

“I can’t sleep because this is so awful,” said Saideman.

“I am in shock and do not have much to say. What will happen the next few years is anyone’s guess, but it will not be good for anyone except the ultra-rich,” Schmidt cautioned.

Donald Trump’s 2024 U.S. presidential election victory has reignited discussions about the country's political and social divides. With significant swings across battleground states, many experts argue that Trump’s win is as much a critique of the Democrats as it is a reflection of his support base. The path forward for the United States and the potential impacts on its democracy are prompting soul-searching on both sides of the political spectrum.

Why did Americans vote for Trump? '...Not all because they like the man'

Despite Trump’s victory, the win does not signal a resounding endorsement by the American electorate. As Carleton University U.S. foreign policy expert Aaron Ettinger notes, “Americans vote for Trump for lots of reasons, not all because they like the man.”

Ettinger suggests that the divided support reflects not as much overwhelming enthusiasm for Trump, as it does a fractured landscape of political loyalties, where many voters felt dissatisfied with the Democrats' leadership under Kamala Harris and the legacy of the Biden administration.

Echoing this sentiment, University of Toronto political behaviour expert Lewis Krashinsky observes, “we really can no longer call Trump an aberration or an accident.”

For Krashinsky, Trump’s win illustrates a decisive, if controversial, choice by millions of Americans, who appear ready to embrace the candidate despite his legal controversies and charges against him. These results suggest a shift in voter values, where even accusations of misconduct and felonies have not dissuaded a significant portion of the electorate from supporting Trump.

How the Harris campaign opened door for Trump

The results are sparking questions within Democratic circles about why the party struggled to secure voter support, especially in key demographics.

Cultural comparativist Philip Kaisary points to a broader issue that transcends this single election, stating, “a deep and manifold crisis has resulted in the rejection of the political mantras and socioeconomic conventions of our times.”

Kaisary argues that rising inequality, stretching back to previous administrations, and Democrats’ inability to address economic frustrations left the electorate open to Trump’s populist rhetoric.

Additionally, there is growing recognition that Harris’s campaign may not have connected deeply enough with voters on economic recovery and job creation, areas where Biden’s administration had a mixed record.

“Basically, as analysts are saying, swings of Latinos, some Black men, and younger white men in battleground states [went] toward Trump,” comparative North American political science expert Melissa Haussman told Yahoo News Canada, underscoring Harris' struggles to retain certain demographics that previously leaned Democratic.

Experts also point out the effect of inflation on Harris’s campaign. Economic discontent, lingering from post-COVID recovery, also gave Trump’s message an advantage. As Kaisary noted, the "disintegration of reasoned public debate" left some voters increasingly susceptible to polarizing narratives, and Harris’ association with Biden’s administration made it challenging for her to appeal as a change candidate in an economically frustrated electorate.

University of Toronto political scientist Ryan Hurl laid down the specifics on where the Democrats missed for Yahoo News Canada.

'One thing we all got wrong...': Voting pattern on social issues, democracy

Several experts also highlight the role of social and democratic principles in shaping voter opinions. The Associated Press reports that a substantial number of Americans, particularly Democrats, view Trump as a threat to democratic norms. The impact of the Capitol riots on January 6, 2021, continues to loom large, particularly for voters who feel that Trump's involvement cast a long shadow over the democratic process

Stephen Saideman, an international affairs expert from Carleton University, reflects on the complex motivations behind Trump’s support, suggesting that some Americans may feel “frustration with government in general and the Biden administration in particular.”

He contends that despite Harris’s strong stance on issues like abortion rights, voters did not uniformly align on these issues with their preferred presidential candidate, leading to unexpected ballot-splitting.

Exit poll data also indicate that ticket-splitting was notable, especially in states with critical down-ballot measures on issues such as abortion. Some voters who supported abortion rights on referendums cast their vote for Trump, showing a complex interplay between social issues and candidate loyalty.

"One thing we all got wrong—that people voting for abortion referenda would also vote for the pro-choice candidate,” Saideman noted. This voting pattern highlights a divergence in priorities where economic and security concerns may have outweighed social issues for many Americans.

Political theorist Stacy Douglas believes that Trump’s success sends a powerful message to political establishments outside the U.S., particularly in Canada.

RELATED: Donald Trump presidency may have 'catastrophic' effect on Canada

Douglas warns that continued stagnation on key issues, such as healthcare, infrastructure, and climate initiatives, could risk pushing voters away from mainstream parties.

The implications of this election stretch beyond the United States, as populist and anti-establishment sentiments gain traction in other democratic nations. Douglas’ insight reflects a broader issue within Western democracies grappling with polarized societies.

Many political observers are drawing parallels between Trump’s resurgence and growing dissatisfaction with establishment politics across other democracies.

For political scientist Natasha Goel — whose research centres around political polarization — Trump's win raises questions about the future of coalition-building within the Democratic Party.

“The Democrats gambled on a big tent, and it may not have paid off in the ways they hoped,” Goel observes.

With an increasingly diverse and divided voter base, Democrats may need to reconsider how they unify disparate interests, especially as economic challenges persist and working-class voters feel neglected.