Earth is warming. May data doesn't show otherwise | Fact check
The claim: May 2024 temperature data from the US shows there has been no global warming over the last 128 years
A June 19 Facebook post (direct link, archive link) shows a graph of National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration data for the U.S. that displays average temperatures for the month of May between 1895 and 2024.
"128 years of global warming down the drain: May 2024 0.1°F cooler than May 1896 in the US, per NOAA data," reads text above the graph. "Ask a climate hoaxer to 'splain that."
The post, which is a screenshot of a post on X, formerly Twitter, was shared on Facebook more than 200 times in five days.
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Our rating: False
Scientists have documented modern global warming by examining temperature trends over long time frames. Comparing average temperatures for two random months is not a valid way to determine whether Earth's climate is changing, according to researchers. While May 2024 was roughly 0.1 degrees cooler than May 1896 in the U.S., NOAA data shows an overall warming trend in the U.S. and globally over the last 128 years.
NOAA temperature data shows 128-year warming trend for US and world
Though the post fails to acknowledge it, NOAA data shows a 128-year warming trend for the month of May in the U.S. NOAA data also shows warming over that timeframe when all months are considered, both in the U.S. and globally.
NOAA is not alone. Multiple independent climate research organizations have documented global warming.
Researchers have also documented ocean warming and the results of both marine and atmospheric warming, such as polar ice loss and sea level rise.
In the U.S., the consequences of warming include:
An increase in the frequency of heat waves
Changing time frames for the emergence of leaves and flowers in the spring
Earlier ice breakup dates in Alaskan river systems
Shrinking snowpack in the western U.S.
Melting glaciers in Alaska and Washington
Changes in the ranges of various marine species
Increase in flooding events due to sea level rise
Modern global warming is caused by an increase in greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere due to human activity, according to NASA.
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Global climate trends can't be determined by comparing two data points
May 2024 was cooler than May 1896 in the U.S. even though average temperatures warmed overall worldwide and in the U.S. during that timeframe, according to NOAA data. This highlights the problem with using two random pieces of temperature data to draw conclusions about long-term climate trends.
Even on a warming planet, weather fluctuations and natural climate variability, such as the El Niño-Southern Oscillation, cause temperatures to rise and fall from month to month and year to year, according to researchers.
Climate "variability can produce weather patterns that may bring cooler than normal temperatures to some locations for some period of time," Sean Birkel, an assistant professor at the University of Maine and the Maine State Climatologist, previously told USA TODAY. "Meanwhile, the global temperature is still warmer than in decades past."
Gavin Schmidt, the director of NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies, also previously told USA TODAY that the existence of a statistically significant warming trend does not mean that every single month will be warmer than all previous months.
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Further, while the U.S. is warming overall (consistent with the global trend), the Facebook post is wrong to use U.S. temperature data to draw conclusions about global warming. This is because global warming trends are calculated from temperature measurements taken all over the globe, not just the U.S.
Some places, such as the Arctic, are warming much faster than the global average. Other places are warming more slowly, or even cooling.
"Temperature trends across the entire globe aren’t uniform because of the diverse geography on our planet − oceans versus continents, lowlands versus mountains, forests versus deserts versus ice sheets − as well as natural climate variability," NOAA reports. "When you’re zoomed in on a particular place, you may not be able to see the overall trend."
The U.S. is warming faster than the global average, according to NOAA data.
USA TODAY reached out to the Facebook user who shared the post for comment but did not immediately receive a response.
Our fact-check sources:
NASA Vital Signs of the Planet, accessed June 21, Causes
NASA Vital Signs of the Planet, accessed June 21, Ocean warming
NASA Vital Signs of the Planet, accessed June 21, Ice sheets
NASA Vital Signs of the Planet, accessed June 21, Sea level
NASA Vital Signs of the Planet, accessed June 21, Arctic Sea Ice Minimum Extent
Environmental Protection Agency, July 2022, Climate Change Indicators: Heat Waves
Environmental Protection Agency, February 2023, Climate Change Indicators: Marine Species Distribution
Environmental Protection Agency, July 2022, Climate Change Indicators: Snowpack
Environmental Protection Agency, September 2023, Climate Change Indicators: Coastal Flooding
Environmental Protection Agency, April 2021, Climate Change Indicators: Leaf and Bloom Dates
Environmental Protection Agency, July 2022, Community Connection: Ice Breakup in Three Alaskan Rivers
Environmental Protection Agency, August 2016, Climate Change Indicators: Glaciers
Environmental Protection Agency, May 2014, Climate Change Indicators: Bird Wintering Ranges
Environmental Protection Agency, July 2022, Climate Change Indicators: U.S. and Global Temperature
USA TODAY, March 31, 2022, Fact check: Short term global temperature fluctuations do not negate climate science, overall warming
USA TODAY, Jan. 30, 2023, Fact check: Earth is warming, cold events do not prove global cooling
NOAA, accessed June 20, National Time Series (May)
NOAA, accessed June 20, National Time Series (Year to date)
NOAA, accessed June 20, Global Time Series
NOAA, Oct. 29, 2020, Does "global warming" mean it’s warming everywhere?
NOAA, May 5, 2014, What is the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) in a nutshell?
CNBC, June 14, Luxury homes on these beaches are losing value fast, as effects of climate change hit hard
The Washington Post, June 11, Anatomy of a flood
The Washington Post, Dec. 14, 2022, The surprising reasons parts of Earth are warming more slowly
Carbon Brief, Aug. 11, 2022, The Arctic has warmed ‘nearly four times faster’ than the global average
The Guardian, Nov. 14, 2023, ‘The science is irrefutable’: US warming faster than global average, says report
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This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: No, May 2024 temperatures do not disprove global warming | Fact check