Election Day 2024 live results: Trump projected to win two swing states, N.C. and Ga.
Polls have closed in some states and the first results are coming in in the high-stakes presidential match-up between Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump. According to 538's forecast, both candidates have a roughly equal chance to win.
Voters are still at polling places around the country, casting ballots to decide who controls not only the White House, but also Congress, state and local governments.
Reporters from 538 and ABC News will be following along every step of the way with live updates, analysis and commentary on the results. Keep up to date with our full live blog below!
Latest Developments
Nov 6, 12:51 AM
Uniform swings are not uncommon
Many presidential elections have seen most states swing in the same direction. Here's a figure showing what fraction of states swung towards the Democrats (or GOP in red) between each pair of elections. Tonight's outcome is not unusual. pic.twitter.com/GhZV21fwwf
— Dan Hopkins (@dhopkins1776) November 6, 2024
Nov 6, 12:47 AM
Trump wins back Georgia for the GOP and inches closer to victory
ABC News has projected that Trump will carry Georgia and its 16 electoral votes. In 2020, Georgia was the closest state in the country, going for Biden by just 0.24 points. This time around, with 97 percent of the expected vote reporting, Trump leads by 2.3 points over Harris, 50.7% to 48.4%. The Georgia win puts Trump at 246 electoral votes, with just 24 more needed to win.
Nov 6, 12:44 AM
Republicans have won 50 Senate seats
With ABC News' projection that Republican businessman Bernie Moreno will win Ohio's Senate seat, a flip for the GOP, the Democrats have lost any real chance at keeping control of the chamber. While they started the night holding 51 seats (including the independents who caucus with them), Democrats can hope now to win at most 50 — tying the Republicans in an environment where Trump is overwhelmingly likely to be the next president (and thus, JD Vance will supply Republicans the tie-breaking vote in the Senate).
But things could get even worse for Democrats. Montana's incumbent Democratic Sen. Jon Tester currently trails Republican opponent Tim Sheehy by 20 points in Montana, though just 16 percent of the vote is in. If the votes there go the way they are going in other red-state Senate seats, Tester doesn't stand a chance. And Republicans currently lead the Senate races in Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania.
If you were waiting up to see who would win the Senate ... go to bed.
Nov 6, 12:44 AM
Republicans pick up seat in northeast Pennsylvania
Democratic Rep. Matt Cartwright had managed to hold onto a GOP-leaning seat for three cycles, but his ability to win enough conservative voters to hold the seat appears to have run its course. ABC News has projected that Republican Robert Bresnahan will defeat Cartwright, making it a GOP pickup. The win is part of a stronger GOP showing in northeast Pennsylvania, which is part of the broader Democratic weakness in Pennsylvania that has put Harris in a trailing position.
Nov 6, 12:39 AM
Conservative Democratic Rep. Henry Cuellar faces a dangerously close reelection bid
As election results are tabulated, the results we have so far for Texas's 28th District suggest that Democratic Rep. Henry Cuellar might win reelection — but only barely so. With 80% of the vote in, Cuellar only leads his challenger, Republican Jay Furman, by four percentage points.
If this trend continues, it would represent a marked shift to the right for the district, which stretches from San Antonio to the southernmost point of the Texas-Mexico border. In 2022, Cuellar sailed to reelection by 14 points. At the time, his overwhelming win was viewed as somewhat surprising since Cuellar's home and office were raided by the FBI in the week's before the 2022 primary election. Cuellar has long denied any wrongdoing.
It seems like Cuellar, who was first elected in 2004, might be able to hold onto his seat tonight. But he'll have to work for it. And — who knows — maybe winning by a narrow margin tonight will convince Cuellar to fall in line with his party more. Though he's a relatively reliable vote for the House Democratic Caucus, he's distanced himself from his more-liberal colleagues on a number of issues, including abortion. Notably, Cuellar is the only Democrat in the chamber who is anti-abortion. While his colleagues have called for federal protections for abortion, Cuellar has said that abortion-related policies should be left up to the states.
It's unclear how much of Cuellar's current vote margin is due to a rightward shift among Texas's voters who live along the state's southern border. It's also possible that Cuellar is suffering in the polls due to his own personal issues. He was indicted in May on charges of bribery and money laundering.
Nov 6, 12:32 AM
Wither the House?
Right now, the presidential race is looking good for Trump and the Republicans, who have already taken North Carolina and have more votes in all three Blue Wall states. In the Senate, the question mainly remains over the size of their gains.
But the House looks a bit different so far — with the caveat that it's early. But in wave elections, you often see seemingly safe members of the losing party go down to defeat, and so far, the Democrats are only behind in a single seat that was rated by the Cook Political Report as one that Democrats were expected to win (narrowly). That may well change as more ballots are counted — but it is also a quirk of American electoral geography that winning a trifecta means winning in a variety of different types of communities.
Nov 6, 12:48 AM
Republicans hold Wisconsin's 1st District
ABC News projects that Rep. Bryan Steil will win reelection in Wisconsin's 1st District. Our forecast rated this seat "Likely Republican," so this isn't necessarily a surprise, but Democrats were hopeful they could make inroads in this suburban district.
Nov 6, 12:30 AM
Republicans hold top Utah seats
Both incumbent Republican Gov. Spencer Cox and Senate candidate John Curtis have been projected to win their races in Utah by ABC News. While some early polls suggested that Republican write-in candidate Phil Lyman might cut into Cox’s lead in the gubernatorial race, ultimately Lyman is only taking 8 percent of the vote with 35 percent of the expected vote reporting.
Nov 6, 12:52 AM
Harris projected to win New Mexico
ABC News is projecting that Harris will win New Mexico's five electoral votes. ABC News is also projecting the state's U.S. Senate race for the Democratic incumbent, Martin Heinrich.
Nov 6, 12:20 AM
Why Senate seats are worth so much
Blue Wall Democratic Senate seats seem to be on the knife's edge. Here's why they are so key: Senate seats are held for six years, and there are only 100 of them, versus 435 House seats held for two years. So that makes each Senate seat worth roughly 13 House seats. And the Senate looks very different with, say, 55 Republican Senators than with 52 Republican Senators. With 52 Republican Senators, moderates like Susan Collins and Lisa Murkowski are key. But with 55 Republican Senators, more expansive GOP policy goals are well within reach.
