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Is an end to omicron in Kansas City in sight? Here’s what local experts had to say

Data from around the world shows that the highly contagious omicron variant may fade away as suddenly as it arrived. But local experts say it’s too soon to know when exactly that will happen in the Kansas City area.

Dr. Catherine Satterwhite is the Region 7 Health Administrator for the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services. Her region includes both Kansas and Missouri, and she said the area will likely continue to see overwhelming case numbers for at least a few more weeks.

“ICU admissions are roughly 14 days behind an infection, and death is about 21 days. So even though we may see a rapid decline in cases, even in the next few weeks, there will be a lag in hospitalizations and ultimately in those very severe outcomes including death,” she said in a news briefing on Wednesday, Jan. 12.

Why can’t daily case numbers show when the wave will end?

While The Star records new case numbers and death totals from local cities and counties daily, trends don’t emerge reliably on the day-to-day level. That’s because weekends, holidays and other interruptions cause data reporting to lag, leading to inflated numbers for the following few days.

Seven-day rolling averages of new cases and new deaths attempt to account for these irregularities. As of Friday, Jan. 14, the seven-day average of new cases is about 3,649 per day. The average death toll over the last seven days is around 13.6 deaths per day.

These numbers reflect a dire situation for hospitals in the area, which are struggling to care for all the patients arriving with COVID-19 and other ailments. This is due in part to staffing shortages across the healthcare industry.

“We know that COVID has a high mortality rate,” said Dr. Steve Stites, chief medical officer for The University of Kansas Health System. “But when we can’t get people taken care of, mortality rates for all diseases rise. Heart attack, stroke, cancer.”

Here are five things you can do to help overwhelmed hospitals.

How does Kansas City compare to the rest of the country?

The omicron variant currently makes up around 90% of the COVID-19 cases in the area that includes Kansas, Missouri, Iowa and Nebraska. Here’s a look at recent data in Missouri, and here’s a look at recent data in Kansas.

On Wednesday, Jan. 12, doctors at the University of Kansas Health System noted that case numbers seemed to be flattening in big metro areas like New York and Chicago. Other countries, like South Africa, have also seen a sharp drop in cases. Dr. Satterwhite said this has the potential to be good news, but that it’s too soon to tell for sure.

“Based on data that we’ve seen around the world, we anticipate that there will be a sharp decline,” she said. “What we don’t know, is when.”

Do you have more questions about the omicron variant or staying safe from COVID-19 in Kansas City? Ask our Service Journalism team at kcq@kcstar.com or fill out the form below.