The trade deadline in reality affected the value of a few players but our fantasy trade deadline is quickly approaching and contains a larger number of buys and sells.
The value of Kelvin Benjamin goes down because he’s going to probably lose the Thursday game this week and also has no rapport yet with new quarterback Tyrod Taylor of the Bills. Drop him a tier from a WR2 to a WR3, but you have to wait until he’s active and starting and probably a week after that to see how he’s being utilized. Devin Funchess’ value goes up, theoretically, but he’s been the picture of inconsistency throughout his career. Make him a poor-man’s Benjamin right now, or a WR3.
The other big trade was Jimmy Garoppolo from the Patriots to the 49ers. He’s not relevant in most one-QB leagues but he will increase the value of Carlos Hyde given he will improve the overall 49ers offense, which is no longer one lead by a bad QB. But it was announced that Garoppolo will not play this week and will have to wait until Week 10 to at least theoretically dramatically improve the 49ers overall offense, given we have so little data on Garoppolo too.
As for the fantasy trade deadline, I’m not dealing with QBs because in a one-QB, 12-team league, you should NEVER trade for a QB.
Who are the buy lows?
Lamar Miller is on pace for 250 carries with a running quarterback in an explosive offense but everyone keeps expecting he’ll lose his job. He hasn’t yet and why would the Texans change their offense fundamentally. If Miller gets the 0.5-yard per carry bump most running quarterbacks generate for their back (on average), he should be more than serviceable going forward. D’Onta Foreman has only 50 carries all year and has hardly lit the league on fire at 4.1 per pop.
Mark Ingram is making a case that he’s a top five running back at least. Yes he shares the job to a degree with rookie Alvin Kamara but that makes him little different than Devonta Freeman, who shares just as much with Tevin Coleman. Ingram is a very good player at 4.4 yards per carry for his career and 4.3 this year. He’s in a high scoring offense with all four of his touchdowns and at 294 of his rushing yards in the three games since Adrian Peterson was traded.
I think Travis Kelce is a buy low because he’s a top five receiver even if you include wideouts. Since 2016, Kelce has the most 100-yard games (nine) and most of them have been crammed into the last 18 games. Remember that doesn’t even count a game where he had 98 yards at halftime before exiting with a concussion. Kelce is still viewed as a guy who can’t find the end zone but that really isn’t the case this year (four scores). There’s little difference now between Kelce and Gronkowski beyond Kelce having a better injury history.
People just don’t want a Jet but I keep saying Robby Anderson is a WR3 and he keeps making me a liar by playing like a WR2. If you have him, please start him as long as the league’s most accurate passer, Josh McCown, is healthy and starting.
Adam Thielen should be ranked over the often-injured Stefon Diggs, given his pace of 1,256 yards is second only to Antonio Brown. This is a big deal in a year where only DeAndre Hopkins, A.J. Green, Tyreek Hill, Brandin Cooks, Keenan Allen, Julio Jones, Zach Ertz, T.Y. Hilton, Mike Evans, Gronkowski, Kelce, Michael Thomas, Golden Tate, Demaryius Thomas, Chris Thompson and the touchdown-challenged Pierre Garcon are on pace for 1,000 yards. I’m not including Larry Fitzgerald given his volume is likely to decrease in the step down from Carson Palmer to Drew Stanton.
Who are the guys to sell?
I can’t say these are all sell “highs” because all leagues are different but you shouldn’t have to take too much of a hit.
I love Doug Baldwin and it kills me to say this but there is just too much diversity in the Seattle passing game. Baldwin’s market share in yards is now 21.4%. Last year it was 25.5%. In 2015: 26.3%. That means you not only sell Baldwin but buy (in most leagues off the waiver wire for nothing Paul Richardson or even Tyler Lockett). Richardson is 18.6% of Seattle passing yards plus he’s become the No. 1 WR option in the red zone. Locket is 17.25% of the Seattle passing game. Baldwin is not making splash plays at 10.2 yards per catch, is the third option in the red zone and is on pace for under 1,000 yards now even though the passing volume is better.
I say every week that Jordan Howard gets no easy points in the putrid Chicago offense and thus can’t be an RB1 even though he has that kind of reputation. He’s going to have to continue his yardage pace and post 1,350 yards to just be an okay fantasy running back, since I can’t project more than four more TDs the rest of the year.
I repeat my advice to sell Jerick McKinnon, who should be valued no differently than Chris Thompson or Alvin Kamara but who can return RB1 value.
Buck Allen is bad and has PPR value built on a ton of meaningless catches (32 for 145 yards). It would be crazy for the Ravens to keep throwing him the ball this much.
Will Fuller leads the league with seven touchdowns and has caught just 13 passes. That’s insane and the model says to sell him to anyone who thinks this can remotely continue. You must send out feelers, at least.