Should fantasy managers target Derek Carr or Aaron Rodgers?

Fantasy football experts Andy Behrens and Scott Pianowski weigh in on which QB to go after in fantasy drafts this season.

Hear the full conversation on the Yahoo Fantasy Football Forecast. Subscribe on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, Stitcher or wherever you listen.

Video Transcript

ANDY BEHRENS: I want you to sort Derek Carr, Kirk Cousins, and Aaron Rodgers for me. I have them actually ranked in that order. In each case, we have new coaching voices on the scene. Of course, with Derek Carr. We have Rodgers, absolute security blanket receiver, and Davante Adams, one of the most gifted to ever do it, has chosen to leave Green Bay and join Derek Carr as a former collegiate quarterback. Those two are just absolutely sensational together at the college level. That is obviously a huge swing.

I am pretty infatuated with Derek Carr, particularly at the price point, where you can get him in most leagues. He's a guy who had-- almost literally everything went wrong last season, from the departure of the head coach. He loses Ruggs in the middle of the season to tragic circumstances. Loses Darren Waller for a big chunk of the year to injury. And by the way, Derek Carr got off to a start last year, where it was just 400 yards a week. Still finishes his season with 4,800 passing yards. Leads them to a playoff berth and a playoff appearance in which they were one possession away from maybe beating the team that ultimately made it to the Super Bowl out of the AFC.

So really impressive season for Carr without any help outside of Hunter Renfrow. And now he gets this receiving core that's just kind of unbelievable, in Adams, Renfrow, Waller. It's a great group. So I've actually got him ahead of Kirk Cousins and Aaron Rodgers. And to your point earlier, I'm waiting for somebody else to join that receiving core in Green Bay because this is a lot to ask of Rodgers. He's obviously one of the most gifted passers that you and I have ever seen, fantastic talent. Maybe Aaron Jones ends up leading that team in receiving.

I've got Allen Lazard as the highest ranked Green Bay receiver right now. They bring in the kid out of North Dakota State. Watson, really gifted prospect but huge learning curve ahead of him. So it's just rough. I mean, that receiving core just does not compare at all to what we find in Minnesota or in Vegas.

SCOTT PiANOWSKI: Yeah. I'll just really boil this down simply. Derek Carr, green light. Aaron Rodgers, red light. Derek Carr, I know you have to go back maybe eight, nine years, but Carr and Adams were ridiculous at Fresno State. They put up pinball numbers. And Fresno State is in Alabama. I get it. I mean, the quality of competition played into that. But at least, it's not like Carr and Adams need to meet each other. It's not like they need to get a sense of, "Oh, hey, hey, Davante, what-- it's Davante, right? What routes do you like to Run?"

I mean, they've already got some familiarity here. And what does Carr have? He has a touchdown machine. And for all the talk of, oh, touchdown rates, they regress, and receivers, who had a big touchdown season or a small touchdown season and you get to push that to the mean. There are reasons why certain guys like Davante Adams scored touchdowns. And certain guys, like Julio Jones, as talented as he was, was always five or seven. Andre Johnson was like that, very seldom a dominant touchdown guy.

Adams is so good in space. He had an amazing rapport with Rodgers. And even though Carr and Adams have a history, you want to be careful to not assume it's going to be Rodgers-Adams 2.0 because that just might be something that happens once a generation.

Still, from the Carr perspective, he's got Adams to get double digit touchdowns. Waller is one of the three or four best tight ends in the league. Renfrow has emerged as that slot guy, the option route guy, the third and 8. He's going to put you-- the defender in conflict. He's going to get on the right side of leverage. He's going to make a cut, the ball's going to be there. It's like, how do we stop that? He's going to catch another 95, 100 balls. He's legitimate. They have some people who can get deep on this roster.

And Josh Jacobs is getting to the point. Your running back age out of the league and out of fantasy relevance so quickly. Yeah, it feels like Josh Jacobs hasn't been in the league that long, but once they get sniffing that second contract, we get nervous. I think the Raiders are going to have a lot of weeks where it's like, oh, yeah, 13 carries for Jacobs went nowhere, Carr had to throw the ball 45 times to keep up with what the opponents were doing, and there was another 337 and 3 for Carr. He's one of my favorite targets.

Both, if you're in a draft one league, I think you could live with him. If you're in a super flex league and if I can come out with Brady and Carr or Wilson and Carr or maybe even Carr and one of the fun upside quarterbacks later, I would love to do that. I'm going to be proactive again. It's a green light for Derek Carr.

I don't like the setup for Rodgers. The circus leaves town for everybody. When you're first receiver-- when you're thinking about drafting a quarterback, a fantasy quarterback who doesn't run, and the best thing you can say about his number one receiver is like, yeah, he's wide receiver 35 on my board or something like that, man, that is not a set up for success. Even if you're a pro Allen Lazard guy, what do you have him at, 28 or 30? That's the best it's going to be for Lazard. He's not a special talent. We can't expect Watson to be a great player right away. Robert Tonyan went on milk cartons last year.

The strength of this team will probably be the running backs. And yeah, they'll catch a couple of touchdowns, but a total red light on Rodgers. I think there's a fair chance I will end the draft season. You know how often we draft. There's a fair chance I may not draft Aaron Rodgers the entire summer.

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