Packers vs. Lions: Start Jamaal Williams, who averaged 23.4 touches during Weeks 10-14 when Aaron Jones was out/limited. Jones is out in Week 17, and Williams will be the centerpiece of a Green Bay offense missing Aaron Rodgers, Jordy Nelson, and Davante Adams. The Lions sport the No. 28 ranked run defense DVOA.
Start Eric Ebron, who’s racked up 26 targets over the last three weeks, scoring in each of the past two. It’s better late than never for the enigmatic tight end.
Pay up for Brandin Cooks in DFS, as his ownership should be relatively low coming off a four-game stretch in which he managed just nine catches for 134 yards (and one score). But Chris Hogan remains banged up, and Cooks remains the No. 1 wide receiver on one of the league’s best offenses. The Jets have allowed 28 passing touchdowns, and Cooks’ 9.7 YPT mark is elite.
Texans vs. Colts: Sit Lamar Miller, who’s been outcarried in each of the past two games by Alfred Blue and has scored once since Week 9.
Start T.Y. Hilton, who’s been this year’s biggest boom-or-bust player but has typically performed better at home and gets a highly suspect Houston secondary. Hilton saw 12 targets last week and is a top-10 WR on my board this week.
Browns vs. Steelers: Bench all Browns. Cleveland really should look into addressing that quarterback position at some point.
Vance McDonald looked like an interesting cheap DFS option now healthy and against the Browns, but benching all Steelers makes the most sense now that Pittsburgh has announced it’s resting its starters.
Washington vs. Giants: Start Jamison Crowder, who’s scored in three of the past five games and faces a Giants secondary that’s been ripped for an NFL-high 32 passing touchdowns.
Bears vs. Vikings: Sit all Bears, who have a tough task up against a Vikings team that will be trying to win in Minnesota.
Sit Case Keenum, who’s up against a solid Bears defense and shouldn’t have to throw much with the Vikings 12-point favorites. Minny will mostly focus on winning with defense and running this week.
Cowboys vs. Eagles: Pay up for Ezekiel Elliott in DFS, as he was immediately treated as a workhorse upon his return from suspension last week. The Eagles have a strong run defense but could play plenty of backups locked into the No. 1 seed, and there are fewer than usual top backs this week with Todd Gurley and Le’Veon Bell sitting out.
Sit all Eagles, as there’s too big of a risk the starters rest with this game being meaningless.
Bengals vs. Ravens: Start A.J. Green, whose price continues to drop in DFS, but the volume remains, and Baltimore’s secondary is far more beatable with Jimmy Smith sidelined.
Sit Joe Flacco, who’s recorded multiple touchdowns in each of the past four games (after doing so just twice over the first 11 contests) but has gotten an ugly 5.6 YPA at home this season. This game figures to be relatively low scoring.
Bills vs. Dolphins: Start Charles Clay, who’s looking healthier of late having racked up 19 targets over the past two weeks. Miami ranks No. 28 in DVOA against tight ends.
Pay up for Kenyan Drake in DFS, as the rookie looks to bounce back coming off last week’s disappointing effort. Drake has averaged 110.2 yards from scrimmage with three TDs over five starts this season, ranks No. 3 in yards created per carry (1.93), and the Bills have allowed the most fantasy points to running backs.
Panthers vs. Falcons: Start Christian McCaffrey. Devin Funchess is struggling playing through an injury and Damiere Byrd was placed on IR, so an already shaky Carolina WR corps is as thin as ever. McCaffrey has as many targets (105) as Tyreek Hill this season, and Atlanta has yielded the most receptions to running backs.
Pay up for Julio Jones in DFS. With some top RB options on the shelf this week (and no Antonio Brown), spending big on Jones makes since in a matchup with a Carolina defense that’s been getting torched by wide receivers. Jones ends an otherwise underwhelming season on a high note.
Saints vs. Buccaneers: Start Ted Ginn, who had 76 yards with a score during his return last week. Tampa Bay has allowed the most fantasy points to wide receivers.
Start Jameis Winston, who’s posted an 8:2 TD:INT ratio while getting 9.3 YPA over the past four games. The Bucs can’t run, DeSean Jackson is back, and this game’s over/under (50 points) is the highest of the week. Winston is a borderline top-five QB this week.
Jaguars vs. Titans: Sit Leonard Fournette. Jacksonville claims they will play its starters, but with Fournette banged up, and there actually being more incentive to lose (a rematch with the Titans would be far preferable than a matchup with the Chargers), it wouldn’t surprise to see the rookie RB get plenty of rest. Tennessee also has a good run defense.
Start Derrick Henry. It’s not the greatest matchup if Jacksonville holds true to its word and plays its first-team defense, but Henry is finally going to be treated as a feature back with DeMarco Murray out. Hopefully the Titans expand his role in the passing game. Henry is a top-10 RB in Week 17.
Raiders vs. Chargers: Sit Michael Crabtree. He somehow got just 39 yards on 17 targets two weeks ago, was shutout last week and is dealing with a hamstring injury. Crabtree is also sharing looks with Amari Cooper again, and the Chargers’ corners are elite.
Start Branden Oliver if Melvin Gordon sits out. Oliver is a three-down back, and the Chargers are touchdown favorites at home against an Oakland defense that’s been brutal this season (albeit playing better lately).
Cardinals vs. Seahawks: Start Larry Fitzgerald, who continues to get targeted heavily by Drew Stanton, and the banged up Seahawks secondary is no longer a stay away.
Start Doug Baldwin, who should avoid Patrick Peterson while working mostly out of the slot.
Chiefs vs. Broncos: Sit all Chiefs, as Kansas City is locked into the No. 4 seed and unlikely to play its starters much. Patrick Mahomes is intriguing and put up huge preseason numbers, while Charcandrick West could approach 20 touches, but the Broncos remain a tough matchup.
Start C.J. Anderson, who’s been given 46 carries over the last two games and saw nine targets last week. CJA is finishing the year playing well, and the Broncos figure to rely heavily on the ground game with Paxton Lynch starting and facing a Chiefs run defense that sometimes struggles on the road.
49ers vs. Rams: Start George Kittle, who’s healthy again and acted as San Francisco’s top tight end last week, a position that’s been thriving since Jimmy Garoppolo took over the offense. Kittle’s workout metrics were ridiculous, and he quietly has 16 red-zone targets (tied for fifth among TEs) despite being a rookie who suffered an injury. He’s priced too low in DFS.
Start Malcolm Brown, who’s up against a surging 49ers run defense but should get 20+ touches as the Rams’ lead back with Sean Mannion at quarterback. It’s safest to sit all other Rams this week.
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