What can Florida expect as tropical system nears? Here’s risk for storm surge, flooding
A potential tropical storm is heading toward Florida, with the forecast calling for heavy rain, gusty winds and a risk of flash flooding and storm surge.
While there’s still uncertainty over how strong the system will be and where it will go, forecasters are urging people in Florida to prepare for bad weather this weekend.
The National Hurricane Center predicts the disturbance will strengthen into Tropical Storm Debby by Saturday as it crosses over the Florida Keys and into the Gulf of Mexico. The forecast shows it making landfall north of Tampa Bay on Monday, with tropical storm watches now in effect for the Keys and much of Florida’s west coast.
So, how much rain, storm surge and flash flood could this storm bring?
Here’s what to know:
What’s the flooding risk?
The National Weather Service in Miami expects most of Miami-Dade, all of Broward County, and Key West will have a moderate risk for flooding rain this weekend, which could potentially lead to some evacuations and rescues.
“Ditches and canals may quickly become swollen with swift currents and overspill their banks in a few places, especially in usually vulnerable spots,” according to the weather service’s “Threats and Impacts” report. Some parts of Homestead and other parts of the Keys will have a chance for localized flooding.
The National Hurricane Center says the system could potentially bring four to eight inches of rain across Florida, with some areas seeing up to 12 inches of rain, through Wednesday.
In Miami-Dade and Broward counties, which have an 80% chance of rain Saturday, forecasters are expecting one to two inches of rain will be possible. The rest of the weekend will be soggy, too, with Sunday’s forecast calling for a 60% chance of rain.
In the Keys, two to four inches of rain will be possible through the weekend, according to the National Weather Service in Key West. The Lower Keys are under a “slight risk of excessive rainfall, while the rest of the island chain remains in a Marginal Risk,” the Key West weather service wrote on the social site X.
There’s also a slight risk of flash flooding for much of the state through Wednesday, including in Miami-Dade, according to the hurricane center’s Friday morning forecast. This means there’s at least a 15% chance that heavy rain will lead to flash floods.
Here’s a look at Florida’s flash flood risk by area:
How much storm surge will Florida see?
Storm surge is one of the most dangerous parts of a storm. As of Friday morning, the National Hurricane Center is predicting Florida’s west coast could see up to three inches of storm surge. There is no storm surge risk for Florida’s east coast, as of the morning forecast. However people should continue to monitor the forecast as there’s still uncertainty on the system’s exact track.
Take a look at what the peak storm surge for your area could be:
