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Will Florida feel the remnants of Hurricane Agatha? What the forecast shows

A disturbance partially related to the remnants of the Pacific’s Hurricane Agatha could develop near the Yucatan Peninsula and the northwestern Caribbean Sea, and possibly turn into a tropical depression later this week, forecasters say.

Agatha dissipated completely on Tuesday morning over southern Mexico soon. And people in Florida, which will get soaked in the coming days even without Agatha, are keeping an eye on the storm.

“Regardless of development, locally heavy rainfall is likely across portions of southeastern Mexico, the Yucatan Peninsula, Guatemala, and Belize during the next few days, spreading across western Cuba, southern Florida, and the Florida Keys by the end of the week,” the National Hurricane Center said in its forecast Tuesday morning.

Miami-Dade, Broward and the Keys could see three to four inches of rain later this week, said meteorologist Ana Torres-Vazquez of the National Weather Service in South Florida. But Torres-Vazquez cautions that this could change in the coming days.

Either way, South Florida is in for a wet week as the region moves into the wet season, with the forecast calling for showers and thunderstorms, gusty winds, heavy rain, lightning and small hail, according to the weather service’s hazardous weather outlook.

The disturbance, described as a large area of low pressure, had a 40% chance of formation in the next 48 hours, according to the hurricane center’s 8 p.m. advisory Tuesday. But it had a 70% chance of formation through the next five days as it moves northeast over the northwestern Caribbean Sea and southeastern Gulf of Mexico later this week, forecasters said.

Forecasters are looking at a variety of models to track the potential path of a storm.

READ MORE: Your 2022 survival guide to tropical storms, hurricanes in Miami, Broward and the Keys

“The EURO [European model] places a stronger system by West Florida, while the GFS [American model] has a weaker system moving through the Straits & NW Bahamas on Saturday,” WSVN Meteorologist Vivian Gonzalez wrote on Twitter. “Clouds & rain to spread across the region regardless of development midday Friday through Saturday.”

The system’s track will determine how much rain South Florida gets.

Where is Agatha now? How strong is it?

Agatha made landfall in Mexico Monday as a Category 2 hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 105 mph. It became the strongest hurricane on record to make a May landfall in the eastern Pacific, according to ABC News.

By Tuesday mid-morning, the remnants of Agatha were about 80 miles north-northeast of Salina Cruz, Mexico, and were moving northeast with maximum sustained winds near 30 mph with stronger gusts.

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The last time the remnants of a Pacific storm turned into an Atlantic storm was in May 2020, according to The Weather Channel. Tropical Storm Amanda formed in the eastern Pacific and dissipated over the mountains of Guatemala. Its remnants restrengthened into Tropical Storm Cristobal in the Bay of Campeche in Southern Mexico.

The 2022 Atlantic hurricane season starts Wednesday. The first storm name on the list is Alex.

READ MORE: It’s time to refresh your hurricane kit. What you need to add before a storm threatens.

This article will be updated.

Miami Herald Staff Writer Alex Harris contributed to this story.