Florida Keys leaders hold off on evacuation, shelter orders for now as they track Ian

Florida Keys officials held off on making any evacuation decisions Saturday afternoon based on continued forecasts showing Ian passing by the island chain later and farther west than originally expected.

“At this time, we will not be making any evacuation decisions, sheltering, or subsequent protective measures,” Monroe County Emergency Management Director Shannon Weiner said in a statement.

Weiner said that officials would continue reevaluating the decision through Sunday morning, when a conference call of county, municipal, state and federal officials is scheduled to convene to discuss what is now Tropical Storm Ian — but is expected to be a major hurricane after it leaves Cuba and heads into the western Florida Straits and Gulf of Mexico.

Jonathan Rizzo, warning coordination meteorologist with the National Weather Service in Key West, told Monroe County officials during a conference call Saturday morning that the Keys will likely start feeling high winds from Ian after sunset Monday night and into Tuesday morning.

The tropical storm could be a powerful Category 3 hurricane by then, inflicting storm surge in Key West and the Lower and Middle Keys — but, how much surge is anticipated is hard to tell, Rizzo said.

And the storm’s delayed arrival made that prediction even more difficult.

“It puts the carrot out of reach,” Rizzo said. “My informational carrot is farther away.”

Christopher Rothwell, lead meteorologist at NWS Key West, said in an interview that tides are already abnormally high this time of year, so Keys residents should expect some surge from Ian.

“We already have nuisance flooding. When I get onshore winds, it’s not going to improve” he said.

Rizzo said the delayed expected arrival of the storm also makes forecasting sustained winds and wind gusts.

“We’re probably looking at onshore winds. The devil’s in the details on how strong they will be,” he said.

Rizzo added that as the track continues to show Ian passing farther west, whatever effects are going to be felt in the Keys will be much more significant in Key West and the Lower and Middle Keys.

The storm is looking less and less an event from Islamorada up through Ocean Reef in North Key Largo.

“The threat of hurricane force winds is retracting for the Upper Keys,” Rizzo said.

That said, Rizzo warned Keys officials and residents not to be complacent just because the center of the storm is likely to miss the archipelago. After it leave Cuba, Ian’s expected intensity is expected to ramp up significantly, producing heavy rains and windfalls far beyond its center, and this includes parts of the Lower and Middle Keys.

“Take notice of the ‘M’,” Rizzo said, pointing out the “M” marked on the storm track on the NWS map. “That means major hurricane.”

The timing of Tropical Storm Ian’s passage near or by the Keys also makes a difference for storm surge. A king tide, one of the highest tides of the year, is set to peak on Sunday. Tides run higher than normal for days after the peak of a king tide.

The National Hurricane Center predicts several feet of storm surge for the Cayman Islands, where Tropical Storm Ian is set to strike on Monday, but has yet to predict storm surge levels for the Florida Keys or elsewhere in Florida.

Most Monroe County and local municipal offices, including in the city of Key West, are expected to reopen Monday, officials said. The Monroe County Clerk of the Court Office will be closed. Monroe County School District officials said no decision has been made about closing schools.

Miami Herald staff writer Alex Harris contributed to this report.