Forecasters keep a close eye on Caribbean as chances for storm formation rise

Alex Harris

September 19, 2024 at 11:44 a.m.·1 min read

The chances that a new named storm could form in the Caribbean and drift into the Gulf of Mexico next week are growing.

As of Thursday night, the hurricane center gave the system a 40% chance of strengthening within the next seven days, with zero chance within the next two days.

“Gradual development of this system is possible, and a tropical depression could form as the system moves slowly to the north or northwest over the northwestern Caribbean Sea and into the southern Gulf of Mexico through the middle part of next week,” forecasters wrote.

Early computer models show an increasing chance that something could form in the spot south of the Yucatan and Cuba, but exactly what it could be — or where it would go — is an open question. The models are not very accurate without an actual storm to track, so they show a wide range of options, from Mexico to Florida to the Bahamas.

“The speculation’s high about what happens in the Gulf next week, but for now it’s merely speculation. First we need to see where and *if* a coherent system forms but given the environment ahead, it’s worth checking back on the forecast,” wrote Michael Lowry, lead forecaster for Local 10, on Twitter.

The next name on the list is Helene.

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