Disturbance in Caribbean expected to strengthen into hurricane. Florida Keys may be affected

A system brewing in the Caribbean may strengthen into a hurricane early this week — and could pose a threat to several islands and the Florida Keys, according to the National Hurricane Center.

The disturbance may reach hurricane status by Tuesday night, the forecasters said in their Sunday evening update. The Florida Keys may be placed under tropical storm watch by Sunday night or Monday, and locals should monitor the forecast as the storm develops.

Here’s what you need to know.

Potential Tropical Cyclone 18

This disturbance is expected to develop into a tropical storm Monday, and shortly after, into a hurricane. It will likely pass near Jamaica, which is already under tropical storm warning, the hurricane center said.

The western Caribbean, including the Cayman Islands and parts of western Cuba, will see heavy rains, hurricane-force winds and storm surge, according to the NHC. But it’s too early to tell what impact the storm may have on the southeastern U.S.

“The system will bring areas of heavy rain across portions of the western Caribbean... through mid-week,” the update says. “Heavy rainfall could then spread northward into Florida and adjacent areas of the Southeast United States during the middle to late portions of the week.”

Location: 345 miles south of Kingston, Jamaica

Maximum winds: 35 mph

Present movement: northeast at 7 mph

The disturbances in the Caribbean Sea and Atlantic Ocean as of 7 a.m. Sunday.
The disturbances in the Caribbean Sea and Atlantic Ocean as of 7 a.m. Sunday.

A second formation?

There’s another disturbance in the Atlantic Ocean, but that’s not expected to become anything more this week, if ever. It’s sitting east of the southeastern Bahamas and is expected to be swallowed by the disturbance above, which is why the NHC put its formation chance at 10%.

“Slow development of this system is possible during the day or so while it moves westward toward the southeastern Bahamas and eastern Cuba,” the hurricane center said. “Regardless of formation, locally heavy rains are possible during the next couple of days across the Greater Antilles and the Bahamas.”