Will Gabe Davis take fantasy value away from Stefon Diggs?

In the Yahoo Fantasy Football Forecast, Liz Loza and Matt Harmon look at the fantasy winners from the 2022 offseason.

Video Transcript

[CHEERING]

MATT HARMON: In a way, I know that Gabe Davis is going to find his way in a lot of these offseason winner lists because the Bills didn't add another big-time receiver. They added Jamison Crowder, who I think is a decent sleeper if he holds down that slot receiver role. Khalil Shakir, a guy I really like, but he was a fifth round pick. That's basically it.

So the path is kind of crystal clear for Gabe Davis, unlike last year where they added Manny Sanders then kind hedged their bets on Gabe Davis. They didn't really hedge their bets on Gabe Davis this year, so the Bills are kind of banking on him. We'll see if it works. But I kind of want to play the inverse of it where I think this is just more good things for Stef Diggs, who 160 targets in back-to-back years.

I think we could see him meet somewhere in the middle from like an efficiency perspective. 76.5% catch rate in his first year with the Bills, 62% last year. I think we could see it somewhere again in the middle of that. 9.2 yards per target in year one with the Bills, 7.5 last year. Maybe we see somewhere in the 8 range. Touchdowns, 8 to 10 there between the first two years. I think we could maybe see, again, something similar in that range.

So I think that Diggs is a guy that-- last year, I was willing to say he could be the best receiver in fantasy. I think there's just as likely of a case that he could be the best receiver in fantasy this year, but he's going after guys like Davante Adams, who changed teams. He's going after guys like Ja'Marr Chase, who I totally understand why Ja'Marr Chase is going higher. Obviously, Cooper Kupp, Justin Jefferson, consensus top-two receivers in drafts.

But I wouldn't be surprised if this is just the year where Diggs really dominates the target share there because Davis isn't quite ready. Crowder and Shakir are not big-time, needle-mover players. And Diggs has that wide receiver wide receiver one overall season in his range of outcomes, and I don't think he's quite getting discussed that way because last year was a little like-- it was great. He was a top-10 receiver, but he was kind of not-- he was never in contention to be that wide receiver one overall last year. I think this year actually could be that season.

LIZ LOZA: What do you think in terms of-- because, again, I think touchdowns are going to be key for Gabe Davis' fantasy value. And I agree with you between 8 to 10 for-- I would say just over 100 catches, 1,200-ish yards, and 8 to 10-- 8 to 9, I don't think that Diggs gets to double digits-- scores seems about right.

Obviously, we're going to imagine fewer than 70 catches for Davis. I don't think he hits 1,000 yards. But could he tie Diggs in number of touchdowns with, let's say, eight? I don't--

MATT HARMON: Yeah.

LIZ LOZA: I'm still not sold, unless he has another one of these blow-up games where he gets three in week seven and that kind of alters his total. But I would take the under on eight totals for Gabe Davis.

MATT HARMON: I think that makes sense to me. He's a very inconsistent player. Like I mentioned, he was great in that game against the Chiefs. I think he definitely got some help there. You don't score four touchdowns without the defense giving you a little help. Let's just put it that way.

LIZ LOZA: Yeah.

MATT HARMON: But then you go back and watch the game--

LIZ LOZA: Out of nowhere.

MATT HARMON: Out of nowhere, right. And again, I do think he's going to benefit from a lot of looks where Diggs draws the extra defensive coverage, stuff like that. But then you watch Gabe Davis in I think it was their final regular season game against the Dolphins where they were competing for four quarters. Gabe Davis gets thrown double-digit targets. He was terrible in that game, and that was like three weeks before that Chiefs game. So that's still the-- again, it's that inconsistency. I think he could have massive games and then really slow games too.

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