Gibbs' receiving usage boosts his fantasy outlook
Patrick Daugherty, Denny Carter and Connor Rogers examine the fantasy fallout from Jahmyr Gibbs landing with the Detroit Lions, highlighting his role alongside David Montgomery, potential usage and more.
PATRICK DOUHGERTY: I'm just saying, Jahmyr Gibbs is a winner because he went a lot higher than we expected and that even he expected. I've been making this point kind of a lot of places, but always an interesting signing when the player's like, wow, I had no idea I'd be going that high in the draft. So a big, big winner Jahmyr Gibbs was on draft weekend.
But maybe the most controversial pick of the draft, we thought he might sneak into day one. We did not think he would crash into the top half of the draft, although there were rumors after the fact that, whoever had picked 15, I forget who--
CONNOR ROGERS: The Jets. They thought the Jets, which is even more peculiar, considering everything in that backfield. But--
PATRICK DOUHGERTY: That's right. And that raises questions about Breece Hall maybe.
CONNOR ROGERS: There's just a lot. But then the Jets didn't take a running back until like very, very late in the draft. So how does that make a lot of sense? Like, it's very odd.
PATRICK DOUHGERTY: Very, very odd. Jahmyr Gibbs, a very controversial pick. Denny, just what do we think of Jahmyr Gibbs's rookie year fantasy expectations? Because D'Andre Swift is out. David Montgomery is in, has replaced Jamaal Williams. An offense that clearly thinks the time is now, if they're making what amounts to a luxury pick-- Oh, I guess they don't think it's a luxury pick if they're making it at 12, but just what do we think of Jahmyr Gibbs's prospects in this Lions offense?
DENNY CARTER: David Montgomery is not going anywhere, unfortunately. And he's-- David Montgomery is going to score a lot of touchdowns.
PATRICK DOUHGERTY: D Mont Nations cannot be dislodged no matter what you think.
DENNY CARTER: Yeah, I know like Gibbs is a prospect, super exciting, probably will be good for fantasy. You know? Especially from a pass catching standpoint. He'll absorb all those routes that Swift ran when he was healthy last year.
They'll probably not have the-- like you said, Pat, The Governor on Gibbs as they did on Swift, which is good I think for, obviously, at least for his floor, if not for his upside. But prospect wise, weight wise, size wise, he does not profile-- and I'm not the first person to say this, but does not profile as a guy who's going to be just force fed the ball.
PATRICK DOUHGERTY: He never was in college either.
DENNY CARTER: All parts of the field. Right. And so I think we have to come to accept that, kind of expect that, and know that D Mont, as you lovingly call him, is going to be there, and he's also going to be a big part of this running game in Detroit.
PATRICK DOUHGERTY: Connor, DJ-- or not DJ, excuse me. Denny kind of just alluded to how Jahmyr Gibbs will be used, but just how do you think Jahmyr Gibbs will be? Because we hear so much about the pass-catching threat. We hear so much about him being a mismatch. He did have almost 1,000 yards rushing for Alabama last season, right around 150 carries each of the past two years, only like 11 or 12 games in college. Just how do you expect Jahmyr Gibbs to even be used?
CONNOR ROGERS: Right. I think if you're taking him at 12, you have to be dreaming of a scenario that he is Alvin Kamara, no exaggeration. Like, that's how you look at it. It's Kamara has never had that 1,000-yard season on the ground, and it really didn't matter because he's somebody that can draw 80 to 100 targets a game.
So I think with Gibbs, especially in terms of redraft-- we know everybody's going to love him in dynasty. He really-- there's a drastic difference of him in PPR compared to a regular format because Montgomery-- when they went out and paid David Montgomery, you looked at it, and go-- you saw what they did with Jamaal Williams, and then they went and paid for David Montgomery.
You're thinking like, oh, they think they got a premium Jamaal Williams now in this offense, which scares you even more from any other running back being in it. So I think with Gibbs, he doesn't have the traditional frame of being a workhorse running back, but I do think he has special, special skills for the receiving game because acceleration, is so explosive. He's somebody that can really transition from pass catcher to open-field runner much quicker than your average player.
So I think Ben Johnson looks at this offense and goes, I have a lot of different varying skill sets at wide receiver. They also drafted Sam LaPorta really high. So now they are going to actually factor in a tight end in this offense. But I think they look at Gibbs and just have to think they can get him in space and force feed him--
If you're taking him there, I would hope he's getting at least seven targets a game. People are going to think that sounds insane, but he took them in the top 15 of the draft.
PATRICK DOUHGERTY: Yeah.
DENNY CARTER: Right. Right. And you know, Gibbs, his career best reception rate-- or, I'm sorry reception share at Alabama, was 17%. That is a very rare threshold to hit for a running back. So I think Connor is onto something in saying that they're going to force feed him in the passing game, not in the running game.
And hey, we'll take that. We will take it.
CONNOR ROGERS: We will take that.
DENNY CARTER: Because, yeah, he can do a lot with six, seven targets in a game, a ton.
CONNOR ROGERS: And a good offense.
PATRICK DOUHGERTY: I do think it could also be like a Seattle, Geno Smith thing too, where they think, listen, we got more out of Jared Goff last year than we're probably ever going to get again. Right?
CONNOR ROGERS: Good point.
PATRICK DOUHGERTY: I don't know if anyone thought Jared Goff had another season like that in the tank. And as a guy who's been, traditionally, needed like the offense generated for him. Jared Goff [INAUDIBLE] I would generate offense for you. And Jahmyr Gibbs is someone very much like Amon-Ra St Brown, who can actually generate that offense for Jared Goff.
So I think that might have been part of the thought process, too. I still don't know why you give up D'Andre Swift for a song. But--
DENNY CARTER: They didn't like him.
PATRICK DOUHGERTY: Denny, is the answer, by the way, Craig Reynolds, zero RB?
DENNY CARTER: Yeah, right. Craig Reynolds is inevitable, as [INAUDIBLE].
PATRICK DOUHGERTY: Yeah, as the Zoomers are saying. I believe there's-- it's a TikTok meme that Craig Reynolds is inevitable.
DENNY CARTER: Yeah, he will always emerge in the long run, yes.