A hurricane is expected to hit Louisiana this week. Here’s how storm could affect South MS

Martha Sanchez

September 9, 2024 at 9:05 a.m.·3 min read

Editor’s note: This is Monday’s report on Francine. For the latest report, please click here.

A tropical storm in the Gulf of Mexico will likely strengthen to a hurricane as it nears the Louisiana coast this week with strong winds, heavy rains and flash flood risks that extend through the Mississippi Coast, forecasters said.

The system strengthened Monday morning to Tropical Storm Francine. Forecasters issued a hurricane warning for much of the southwest and central Louisiana coast and said Francine will make landfall Wednesday evening, likely as a Category 2 hurricane.

Its exact landfall is still uncertain. The National Hurricane Center has issued a hurricane warning from the Texas-Louisiana state line to Morgan City. A tropical storm warning is in effect east from Morgan City to Grand Isle.

The system is strengthening fast. An Air Force flight into the system on Monday found an inner-core with a partial eyewall, the National Hurricane Center said. Forecasters said they expect Francine to become a hurricane Monday night or Tuesday morning.

The National Hurricane Center’s report on Tropical Storm Francine from 4 a.m. Tuesday.

MS Coast could see storm impacts

South Mississippi was outside of the National Hurricane Center’s Track Forecast Cone on Monday. But the region could face storm surge, strong winds, heavy rainfall and isolated tornadoes this week, the National Weather Service said.

A storm surge watch is in effect from Texas to the Mississippi-Alabama border. A storm surge watch means there is a possibility of life-threatening flooding in the next 48 hours from rising water that moves in from the coast. The National Weather Service said storm surge could reach 2 to 4 feet on the Mississippi Coast.

Forecasters say storm surge could reach 2 to 4 feet on the Mississippi Coast as Tropical Storm Francine nears Louisiana this week.

South Mississippi has a low chance of tropical storm-force winds this week. The highest risk of wind impacts is in Hancock County, the National Hurricane Center’s wind map shows. The National Weather Service said winds on the Mississippi Coast could be 39 to 57 miles per hour.

Forecasters said the region could also get 4 to 6 inches of rain this week and is under a slight risk of flash flooding. Hancock County has a moderate risk for flooding rain, the National Hurricane Center said. Harrison and Jackson counties are under slight risk of flooding from rainfall.

A few isolated tornadoes are also possible in each coastal county, forecasters said.

Hancock County has a 20 to 30 percent percent chance of tropical storm-force winds this week. The rest of the coast has only a 10 to 20 percent chance of tropical storm winds.

When will wind and storm surge start?

Beginning Tuesday night, forecasters said residents of Louisiana and the upper Texas coastlines should be ready for storm surge and damaging winds. Hurricane conditions are possible in Louisiana by Wednesday afternoon. Tropical storm conditions could arrive in Louisiana Wednesday morning, forecasters said.

Tropical Storm Francine is expected to bring heavy rain and flash flood risk from northeast Mexico through South Mississippi through Thursday morning, forecasters said.

The Mississippi Coast could get 4 to 6 inches of rain this week as Tropical Storm Francine moves toward Louisiana.

The system was moving through the western Gulf of Mexico with maximum sustained winds of 65 miles per hour on Monday afternoon. Forecasters said it should remain off-shore for the next day or so, then turn northeast on Wednesday and gain speed.

The storm was slowly strengthening Monday morning, forecasters said. Forecasts predict the disturbance will organize over warm waters and steadily strengthen on Tuesday.

This is a developing story. Check back for updates.

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MS Coast could see storm impacts

When will wind and storm surge start?

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