After showery start to the day for many Ontarians Wednesday, more remarkable has been the strong winds, ramping up through the morning and potential reaching 70-80 km/h along lakeshore areas, before gradually dying down through the afternoon, accompanied by thunderstorm risk in the east. Beyond, a mild start to the weekend may give way to less favourable weather, depending on the track of distant Hurricane Delta. For a closer look, see below.
- Showers largely ended, but afternoon thunderstorms possible in the east
- 70-80 km/h gusts possible along lakes Huron, Erie, and the east side of Ontario
- Quick shot of warmth to start the Thanksgiving Day long weekend, uncertainty for Monday
WEDNESDAY: STRONG WINDS, RAIN, THUNDERSTORM RISK
The effects of a Prairie low began pushing into southwestern Ontario early Wednesday morning, with many waking to showers. Those are dying down, but they were accompanied by a ramping up of the wind, set to peak in the afternoon before subsiding.
Gusts may hit 70-80 km/h along the shores of lakes Huron, Erie and the far eastern end of Lake Ontario. Special weather statements are in place for these regions. Elsewhere, widespread gusts of 50-60 km/h are expected in areas further inland across southern, eastern and central Ontario.
As for the departing rain, general rainfall amounts of 5-20 mm are expected north of the GTA -- across central, northeastern and eastern sections. The northern GTA may see 5-10 mm, but areas west and south of Toronto are looking at 2-5 mm of rain or less.
There will also be the risk for non-severe thunderstorms in the afternoon, mainly confined to eastern Ontario, with severe thunderstorm watches issued shortly after noon.
The winds and rain will taper off completely Wednesday night, as the system moves out of the province.
THURSDAY: HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN
Conditions will clear out fast on the back side of the low, with a ridge of high pressure in place Thursday. Fair skies will be prevalent in southern Ontario.
While temperatures will remain close to seasonal, with daytime highs in the mid-teens for much of the south, Thursday will see the start of a transition from a westerly to a southerly flow, allowing for warmer air to filter in for the start of the weekend.
LOOK AHEAD: WARMING UP FOR BEGINNING OF THANKSGIVING WEEKEND, POSSIBLE DELTA REMNANTS
Gorgeous weather for southern Ontario on Friday, but more clouds for central and eastern Ontario, with showers late in the day.
Temperatures will be seasonal again, but a noticeable warmup is on the table for Saturday -- expected to be the warmest day of the long weekend with abundant sunshine. Daytime highs will climb to the low-20s in southern areas.
However, a cold front is expected to cross the region Saturday night with a brief shower possible. Sunday will be mostly cloudy and cooler, with a light east wind off of Lake Ontario. A sprinkle or drizzle is possible, but most of the day will be dry.
For Monday, there is some uncertainty in the forecast because of the low confidence in the long-range track of Hurricane Delta. Slower timing or a more southerly track, indicated by some models, and Thanksgiving Day will be gorgeous, but a faster track further to the north and west would bring an increasing threat for rain.
Beyond, above seasonal temperatures are likely for the mid-next week, but forecasters are watching the potential for a shot of cooler weather at the end of next week and on the weekend.
Check back for updates as we continue to monitor the late week forecast